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荆州市洪涝灾害影响因子探究及风险评估——基于随机森林和XGBoost算法

Influencing Factor Research and Risk Assessment of Flood Disasters in Jingzhou City:Based on Random Forest and XGBoost Algorithm

  • 摘要: 洪涝灾害是我国最常见的自然灾害之一,国内有关于区域洪涝灾害风险性评价的研究已成为灾害学和区域规划领域的热点议题。面向湖北省荆州市2020年7月遭受的洪涝灾害,采用随机森林模型完成荆州市洪涝影响因子贡献率测度与灾害风险评价体系构建,再结合XGBoost模型进行区域洪涝风险评估及区划。结果表明:(1)对荆州市洪涝灾害风险贡献率最突出的3项指标为主要河流水系缓冲区、蓄洪区和夜间灯光亮度;极端日降雨量、土壤湿度、土壤质地、耕地面积占比、近5年暴雨天数也在洪涝灾害风险评估中贡献较大。(2)在精简掉贡献率较低的土地利用类型、坡向、植被覆盖度和距主要道路距离和这4个指标后,随机森林模型性能和预测准确率达到最高。(3)荆州市洪涝灾害高风险区面积占比为15.30%,其范围沿洪湖、长江干流及其下属支流分布十分显著,因而荆州市对于长江水位线的检测和其防洪堤规划十分重要;荆州最易受到洪涝灾害威胁的是洪湖市、监利市东部、公安县和石首市,相关管理人员应及时做好防灾减灾应对措施。

     

    Abstract: Flood disaster is one of the most common natural disasters in China. The research on the risk assessment of regional flood disaster has become a hot topic in the field of disaster science and regional planning. In view of the flood disaster in Jingzhou City,Hubei Province in July 2020,the random forest model is used to complete the measurement of flood impact factor contribution rate and the construction of disaster risk assessment system in Jingzhou City,and then based on XGBoost model,regional flood risk assessment and regionalization are carried out. The results show that:(1)The three indexes contributing most to the risk of flood disaster in Jingzhou City are the buffer zone of river system,flood storage area and night light intensity. Extreme daily rainfall,soil moisture,soil texture,proportion of cultivated land area and rainstorm days in recent 5 years also contributes significantly to flood disaster risk assessment.(2)The performance and prediction accuracy of the risk assessment model reaches the highest after the four indexes of land use type,slope aspect,vegetation coverage and distance from main roads decrease.(3)The area of high risk area of flood disaster in Jingzhou is 15.30%,and the area of high risk area of flood disaster is distributed significantly along Honghu Lake,mainstream of Yangtze River and its subordinate tributaries. Therefore,Jingzhou is very important for the detection of water level of Yangtze River and the planning of the flood dike. Honghu City,eastern Jianli City,Gong’an County and Shishou City are the most vulnerable to the flood disaster in Jingzhou. Relevant management personnel should take timely measures to prevent and reduce disasters.

     

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