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基于贝叶斯卷积神经网络的渗透系数反演与不确定性分析

Inversion and Uncertainty Analysis of Hydraulic Conductivity Based on Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network

  • 摘要: 地下水资源的科学管理及决策高度依赖于精确的地下水模型,其中渗透系数这一水文地质参数发挥着至关重要的作用。为了全面理解和有效利用地下水,不仅需要准确估计渗透系数空间分布,还需对参数的不确定性进行量化,以评价其可信度。研究利用贝叶斯卷积神经网络(BCNN)探讨了渗透系数的参数反演和不确定性分析问题。为了检验该方法的有效性,进行了二维稳态水力层析抽水试验的虚拟数值实验。基准模型是具有编码-解码器结构的卷积神经网络,通过建立一个逆向映射模型,能够直接从空间插值得到的水头场中估计出参数场。在这个确定性模型的基础上,训练了贝叶斯卷积神经网络。结果表明,BCNN在不同训练数据规模下,都比确定性模型精度更高,特别是在数据量较少时,优势更加突出。通过对测试集样本进行分析,发现模型对不同区域的估计值有不同的可信度。训练良好的BCNN能够可靠地捕捉渗透系数分布的大致模式。此外,与生成式模型相比,BCNN在估计更加具挑战性的多峰非高斯对数渗透系数场时也有良好表现,这证明了BCNN在不同地质介质条件下的广泛适用性。贝叶斯卷积神经网络的使用能准确反演渗透系数并评估不确定性,为后续的地下水流模拟等物理过程提供了坚实的基础。

     

    Abstract: Accurate groundwater modeling is essential for the scientific management and decision-making of groundwater resources, as it involves hydraulic conductivity, a key hydrogeological parameter. To fully understand and effectively utilize groundwater, we not only need to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity but also need to quantify the uncertainty of the parameter to evaluate its credibility. In this study, parameter inversion and uncertainty analysis of hydraulic conductivity were investigated using the Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network(BCNN). To test the validity of the method, a synthetic numerical experiment of a two-dimensional steady-state hydraulic tomography pumping test was conducted. The baseline model is a convolutional neural network with an encoder-decoder structure, which builds an inverse mapping that estimates the parameter field directly from the head fields obtained by spatial interpolation. Based on this deterministic model, we trained the Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network. The results show that the BCNN outperforms the deterministic model in accuracy under various training data sizes, with a more significant advantage when the data is scarce. By analyzing the test set samples, we observe that the models exhibit different levels of confidence for their estimates across different regions. A well-trained BCNN can faithfully capture the approximate pattern of the hydraulic conductivity distribution. Moreover, the BCNN also excels in estimating the more challenging multimodal non-Gaussian logarithmic hydraulic conductivity field compared to the generative model, which indicates the wide applicability of the BCNN under diverse geological media conditions. The use of Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks enables accurate inversion of hydraulic conductivity and evaluating uncertainty, providing a solid basis for subsequent physical processes such as groundwater flow simulation.

     

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