Abstract:
The evaluation and decision of multi-objective operation scheme have always been one of the research focuses in the field of reservoir operation. There are some problems in the evaluation of existing eco-friendly reservoir operation schemes, such as few ecological indicators, and the subjectivity of the evaluator’s cognition is difficult to express accurately, which affects the reasonable evaluation and decisionmaking of eco-friendly reservoir operation schemes. Taking Jiayan Water Control Project in Guizhou Province as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of eco-friendly dispatching scheme from the four dimensions(i.e. criteria) of urban water supply, irrigation, power generation and ecology conservation, and adopts the hydrological alteration indicators based on monthly(or ten-day) flow data to quantify the ecological impact of reservoir dispatching. These indicators involve the magnitude of monthly(or ten day)water conditions, the uneven coefficient of annual runoff, the magnitude and the timing of annual extreme(i.e. maximum and minimum)water conditions. For the imprecision of criteria attribute values and the difficulty in determining the weights of criteria attribute, a multi-attribute evaluation method(HPR-MAEM) coupling hesitant fuzzy set, prospect theory and rough set theory is proposed. The indicators under each criterion are weighted by using the following four methods, namely, dualistic factor contrast, variation coefficient, entropy and CRITIC methods. The obtained attribute values of each criterion form a hesitant fuzzy number. Then, the prospect value function is used to calculate the loss and the gain of the attribute values of each scheme’s criterion deviating from the positive and the negative ideal attribute values, as well as the comprehensive prospect value. The weight of the criterion attribute is calculated through the attribute reduction of rough set. Finally, the weighted comprehensive prospect value of each scheme is calculated to rank the schemes. To further verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method, the ranking result of HPR-MAEM is compared with those of traditional TOPSIS method, variation coefficient method, entropy weight method and CRITIC method. The evaluation results of 10 long-term operation schemes of Jiayan Water Control Project show that the hydrological alteration index based on monthly(or ten-day) flow data can comprehensively reflect the ecological effect of reservoir operation, HPR-MAEM method can reasonably consider the impact of different weighting methods and the limited rationality of decision-makers on the evaluation results, and the four dimensions of urban water supply, irrigation, power generation and ecology conservation of the recommended operation scheme are more balanced.