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基于犹豫模糊集、前景理论和粗糙集的水库生态友好型调度方案评价

Evaluation of Reservoir Eco-friendly Operation Scheme Based on Hesitant Huzzy Set,Prospect Theory and Rough Set

  • 摘要: 多目标调度方案的评价决策一直是水库调度领域研究重点之一。现有的生态友好型水库调度方案评价中存在诸如生态指标偏少、评价者认知的主观性难以精确表达等问题,影响到生态友好型水库调度方案的合理评价与决策。以贵州省夹岩水利枢纽为研究实例,从城镇供水、灌溉、发电、生态4个维度(即准则)角度,构建生态友好型调度方案评价指标体系,采用基于月(旬)流量数据的年内月(旬)均流量大小改变度、年径流不均匀程度改变度、年内峰、谷流量改变度、年内峰、谷流量出现时间改变度等水文改变度指标量化水库调度的生态影响。考虑到准则属性权重难以确定和属性值不精确,提出了耦合犹豫模糊集、前景理论和粗糙集理论的多属性评价方法(HPR-MAEM)。采用二元对比法、变差系数法、熵值法和CRITIC法等四种赋权方法,对每一个准则下指标进行赋权,获得的准则属性值构成一个犹豫模糊数,然后采用前景理论的价值函数计算每个方案的准则属性值偏离正负理想属性值的损失和收益及综合前景值,并通过粗糙集属性约减计算准则属性的权重,最后计算各方案的加权综合前景值,对方案进行排序。为进一步验证方法的合理性与有效性,将HPR-MAEM排序结果与传统TOPSIS方法和变差系数法、熵值法和CRITIC法排序结果进行比较。对夹岩水利枢纽10个长期调度方案的评价结果表明:基于月(旬)流量数据的水文改变度指标能够较全面反映水库调度的生态效应,HPR-MAEM方法能合理地考虑不同赋权方法和决策者有限理性对评价结果的影响,推荐的调度方案的城镇供水、灌溉、发电、生态四个维度更为均衡。

     

    Abstract: The evaluation and decision of multi-objective operation scheme have always been one of the research focuses in the field of reservoir operation. There are some problems in the evaluation of existing eco-friendly reservoir operation schemes, such as few ecological indicators, and the subjectivity of the evaluator’s cognition is difficult to express accurately, which affects the reasonable evaluation and decisionmaking of eco-friendly reservoir operation schemes. Taking Jiayan Water Control Project in Guizhou Province as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of eco-friendly dispatching scheme from the four dimensions(i.e. criteria) of urban water supply, irrigation, power generation and ecology conservation, and adopts the hydrological alteration indicators based on monthly(or ten-day) flow data to quantify the ecological impact of reservoir dispatching. These indicators involve the magnitude of monthly(or ten day)water conditions, the uneven coefficient of annual runoff, the magnitude and the timing of annual extreme(i.e. maximum and minimum)water conditions. For the imprecision of criteria attribute values and the difficulty in determining the weights of criteria attribute, a multi-attribute evaluation method(HPR-MAEM) coupling hesitant fuzzy set, prospect theory and rough set theory is proposed. The indicators under each criterion are weighted by using the following four methods, namely, dualistic factor contrast, variation coefficient, entropy and CRITIC methods. The obtained attribute values of each criterion form a hesitant fuzzy number. Then, the prospect value function is used to calculate the loss and the gain of the attribute values of each scheme’s criterion deviating from the positive and the negative ideal attribute values, as well as the comprehensive prospect value. The weight of the criterion attribute is calculated through the attribute reduction of rough set. Finally, the weighted comprehensive prospect value of each scheme is calculated to rank the schemes. To further verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method, the ranking result of HPR-MAEM is compared with those of traditional TOPSIS method, variation coefficient method, entropy weight method and CRITIC method. The evaluation results of 10 long-term operation schemes of Jiayan Water Control Project show that the hydrological alteration index based on monthly(or ten-day) flow data can comprehensively reflect the ecological effect of reservoir operation, HPR-MAEM method can reasonably consider the impact of different weighting methods and the limited rationality of decision-makers on the evaluation results, and the four dimensions of urban water supply, irrigation, power generation and ecology conservation of the recommended operation scheme are more balanced.

     

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