1960-2016年海河流域不同级别降雪时空变化特征分析
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Different Levels of Snowfall in Haihe River Basin from 1960 to 2016
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摘要: 气候变暖背景下,为了解降雪对气候变化的响应,基于1960-2016年海河流域及周边43个气象站点逐日气象数据,采用指数方程形式的双温度阈值法提取降雪系列,并以国家气象部门划分的降雪级别分析海河流域降雪时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)建立的海河流域降雪识别指数方程能较好地估计各气象站点降雪量,率定期和验证期的降雪相关系数均可达0.90以上,相对误差在±5%以内;(2)时间分布上,海河流域各级别降雪年际变化整体呈不显著减少趋势,但各地貌类型区年际变化趋势有所不同;(3)空间分布上,太行山区、平原区各级别降雪量和降雪次数总体呈减少趋势,燕山山区、沿海区总体反呈增加趋势;(4)统计分析不同级别降雪与温度的相关性及降雪发生时的温度,发现大雪、暴雪与气温呈正相关,中雪、小雪与气温呈负相关,且平原区降雪发生时温度最高,燕山山区降雪发生时温度最低。Abstract: Under the context of global warming,to understand the response of snowfall to climate change,the double temperature threshold method is used in this paper to extract snowfall series,based on daily meteorological data from 43 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin from 1960 to 2016. In addition,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of snowfall are analyzed according to the snowfall levels as determined by the national meteorological departments. The results show that(1) the snowfall at each meteorological station can be effectively estimated at annual scale through the snowfall identification index equation,for which the correlation coefficient in the periodic and verification periods is above 0.90 and the relative error is within ± 5%.(2) In terms of the time distribution,the interannual variation of snowfall at different levels shows a less obvious decreasing trend,but the interannual variation trend of each geomorphic type area is different.(3)In terms of the spatial distribution,the meteorological stations in Taihang Mountain Area and plain areas show a decreasing trend,while those in Yanshan mountain area and coastal area show an increasing trend.(4) By analyzing the correlation between snowfall and temperature and the temperature at different levels of snowfalls,it is found that heavy snow and Blizzard are positively correlated with temperature,while moderate snow and light snow are negatively correlated with temperature,and the temperature of snowfalls in plain areas is the highest and the lowest in Yanshan mountain areas.