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基于C-Vine Copula熵多目标优化模型的水文气象站网优化研究

Optimization of Hydrometeorological Station Network Based on C-Vine Copula Entropy Multi-objective Optimization Model

  • 摘要: 气候变化背景下水文气象序列的趋势性引发的非平稳特性势必会对水文气象站网优化结果产生一定影响。通过C-Vine Copula熵的多目标站网优化模型和滑动窗口法结合,分别以黄河和淮河流域1992-2018年日降水序列作为研究对象,通过建立的站网优化模型分析了不同窗宽条件下两个典型流域各站点的秩次情况,从而量化分析降雨序列趋势程度对站网优化结果的影响。结果表明:由于Archimedean Copula仅仅适合描述正相关的多变量相依性结构,基于CVine Copula模型估计总相关量更加逼近实际的站网信息冗余量,特别是在高维情形下二者估计的差异性更大;趋势程度较大的淮河流域站网秩次的年际变化相比于趋势程度小的黄河流域站网更加显著,趋势性引发的序列非平稳特性增加了水文气象站网评价结果的不确定性。不同的时间域范围可能会对站网设计结果产生不同的影响,这意味着最佳的站网布设可能只适用于特定的观测时段。因此,研究表明在处理水文气象站网优化时应非常谨慎,因为在其他条件相同情形下,基于固定的全序列剔除或者增加某些台站会导致整个站网系统的水文气象信息损失或信息冗余,为此站网的优化设计应当以使其更适应不断变化的水文气象条件可能更为可取。

     

    Abstract: The trend-caused nonstationarity of the hydrometeorological time series in the context of climate change will pose a signifiacnt impact on the optimization results of the hydrometeorological gauge network. This paper establishes a C-Vine copula entropy-based multi-objective gauge network optimization model to analyze the daily precipitation time series of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River Basin.Through the constructed optimization model, the rank of each station in two basins under different window width conditions is analyzed, and the influence of the trend degree of rainfall series on the optimization results is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that because Archimedean Copula is only suitable for describing the multivariable dependence structure of positive correlation, C-Vine Copula Model is able to achieve the better estimation of total correlation, which is just the actual network information redundancy, especially in the case of high dimension. The annual variation of rank of the Huaihe River Basin with a larger trend is more significant than that of the Yellow River Basin station network with small trend degree, and the trend-caused nonstationarity of the series increases the uncertainty of the evaluation results of hydrometeorological station network.Different time domain ranges may have different effects on the station network design results, which means that the best network design may only be applicable to specific observation periods. Therefore, this study shows that it should be very cautious in dealing with the optimization of hydrometeorological gauge network, because under the other identical conditions, the elimination or addition of some stations based on the fixed whole series will lead to the loss or redundancy of hydrometeorological information of the whole gauge network. The optimal design of station network should make it more suitable for the changing hydrometeorological conditions.

     

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