Abstract:
In order to study the law of flood migration, assess flood damage degree and grasp the response mechanism of major disaster factors to flood disaster elasticity, help provide an ecological approach to urban rainstorm and flood disaster management and improve urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, this paper takes the urban area of Jinan City as the research area, divides 28 catchment areas, combines the flood CADDIES model based on cellular automata theory, simulates the flood situation of different scenarios in the urban area of Jinan City by using actual storm rain patterns and design rain patterns, constructs the flood recovery capability evaluation model based on watershed scale changes, and constructs a double-iteration model with the help of data processing tools. And the paper designs four different flood scenarios under different conditions to evaluate and study the elastic results of flood disasters in the urban area of Jinan City under different scenarios. The results show that the C1~C4 catchment areas are located in mountainous areas and other areas with higher terrain have higher resilience indices for flood disasters in various scenarios. The elasticity index of each catchment decreases with the increase in the return period. The elasticity index of most catchments decreases with the increase in the rainfall duration. The greater the catchment depth threshold, the greater the flood elasticity index. The following conclusions are drawn: Through the combination of actual rain pattern and design rain pattern, the flood inundation migration process at different times in Jinan City is simulated and verified by CADDIES model, which shows the law of the phenomenon of “flooding in the south and flooding in the north”. The recurrence period, rainfall duration and water depth threshold are the important factors affecting the flood disaster resilience of the catchment area. The catchment area with higher elevation in the southern mountainous areas has obvious regional advantages in terms of flood disaster elasticity. The closer the catchment area is to the urban area, the smaller the area of land use types such as grasslands and forests that are conducive to rainwater absorption and infiltration, while the weaker the resilience of flood disasters.