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基于元胞自动机理论的济南市城区洪涝灾害弹性评价

Resilience Evaluation of Flood Disaster in Jinan City Based on Cellular Automata

  • 摘要: 为了通过研究洪水运移规律,评估洪涝破坏程度和把握主要致灾因子对洪涝灾害弹性的响应机制,并帮助提供城市暴雨洪涝灾害管理的生态化途径,提升城市防灾减灾能力,以济南市城区为研究区域,划分28个集水区,结合基于元胞自动机理论的CADDIES洪涝模型,利用实际雨型和设计雨型来模拟济南市城区不同情景的洪涝情况,构建基于流域尺度变化下的洪涝灾害弹性评价模型,借助数据处理工具构建双迭代模型,并设计4种不同条件下的洪涝情景,对不同情景下的济南市城区洪涝灾害弹性结果进行评价研究。结果表明:C1~C4位于山区等地势较高区域的集水区在各情境下洪涝灾害弹性指数均较高;各集水区弹性指数随重现期增加而下降;大部分集水区弹性指数随降雨历时的增加而下降;集水区水深阈值越大,洪涝弹性指数也越大。并得到以下结论:通过运用实际雨型和设计雨型结合的方式,利用CADDIES模型模拟验证了济南市城区各时刻洪水淹没运移过程,表明了“南水北淹”现象发生的规律;重现期、降雨历时、水深阈值的大小均是影响集水区洪涝灾害弹性的重要因素;位于南部山区高程较高集水区在洪涝灾害弹性方面有明显地域优势,越靠近市区,草地、林地等利于雨水吸收和下渗的土地利用类型面积减小,洪涝灾害则弹性越弱。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the law of flood migration, assess flood damage degree and grasp the response mechanism of major disaster factors to flood disaster elasticity, help provide an ecological approach to urban rainstorm and flood disaster management and improve urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, this paper takes the urban area of Jinan City as the research area, divides 28 catchment areas, combines the flood CADDIES model based on cellular automata theory, simulates the flood situation of different scenarios in the urban area of Jinan City by using actual storm rain patterns and design rain patterns, constructs the flood recovery capability evaluation model based on watershed scale changes, and constructs a double-iteration model with the help of data processing tools. And the paper designs four different flood scenarios under different conditions to evaluate and study the elastic results of flood disasters in the urban area of Jinan City under different scenarios. The results show that the C1~C4 catchment areas are located in mountainous areas and other areas with higher terrain have higher resilience indices for flood disasters in various scenarios. The elasticity index of each catchment decreases with the increase in the return period. The elasticity index of most catchments decreases with the increase in the rainfall duration. The greater the catchment depth threshold, the greater the flood elasticity index. The following conclusions are drawn: Through the combination of actual rain pattern and design rain pattern, the flood inundation migration process at different times in Jinan City is simulated and verified by CADDIES model, which shows the law of the phenomenon of “flooding in the south and flooding in the north”. The recurrence period, rainfall duration and water depth threshold are the important factors affecting the flood disaster resilience of the catchment area. The catchment area with higher elevation in the southern mountainous areas has obvious regional advantages in terms of flood disaster elasticity. The closer the catchment area is to the urban area, the smaller the area of land use types such as grasslands and forests that are conducive to rainwater absorption and infiltration, while the weaker the resilience of flood disasters.

     

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