Abstract: Ecological flow is the basis for the health and stability of river ecosystems. Against the background of global climate change and increased human activities, the impact on ecological flow is becoming increasingly significant. In order to explore the response of ecological flow to future environment changes in the Dawen River Basin, the Jinan section of the Dawen River Basin was taken as the research object.The SWAT model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of runoff under future land use and climate scenarios, and to evaluate the ecological flow guarantee rate and response rules of Chenbei and Maxiaozhuang which are the Dawen River water resources dispatch control section.The results show that in the future changing environment, the land use will show the characteristics of reduced cultivated land area and increased urban area; climate change will be characterized by increased precipitation and rising temperatures, in the Jinan section of the Dawen River Basin. Future land use changes will cause runoff to decrease by 2%, climate impact will reduce runoff by 1%～4%, while the two work together to reduce runoff by 3% to 5%. Future climate change will weaken the correlation between precipitation and runoff. Spatially, future land use will enhance the positive spatial correlation of runoff, while future climate change will weaken the positive spatial correlation and significance level of runoff, affecting the spatial distribution characteristics of runoff. Future land use changes will have little impact on flows and the ecological flow guarantee rate of Chenbei and Maxiaozhuang. However, future climate change will change the shape of flow hydrographs of Chenbei and Maxiaozhuang, and the ecological flow guarantee rate of Chenbei and Maxiaozhuang increased from 73%, 74%to 97%, 98%, and the proportion of basic ecological flow guarantee rate of more than 90% increased from 14% to 93%. Among future land use and climate factors, precipitation is the main controlling factor for the ecological flow guarantee rate of Chenbei and Maxiaozhuang. The research results can provide technical support for the ecological dispatch and management, to cope with the changing environment in the Dawen River Basin.