高级检索+

系统微分响应误差修正方法在VIC模型中的应用与研究

Application of and Research on System Differential Response Error Correction Method in VIC Model

  • 摘要: 在应用水文模型进行水文预报的过程中,由于流域水文模型结构存在诸多的简化和假设,这些简化和假设会给水文预报结果带来误差,因此需要误差修正技术来提高水文模型在实时预报中的精度。系统微分响应方法利用系统响应函数通过对水文模型的输入、状态变量、参数的修正来修正预报结果,该方法理论基础扎实,具有结构简单、不损失预见期的优点,已在多个流域水文模型中得到了广泛的应用,效果较好。VIC模型是一种大尺度分布式水文模型,该模型通过将流域划分成多个大小相同的网格,在网格内模拟产汇流结果。以闽江建阳流域为研究区域,构建流域VIC模型进行径流模拟,将系统微分响应误差修正方法应用于VIC模型中,通过对模型输入中的降雨量进行修正来修正预报结果,并与传统自回归模型误差修正方法(AR模型)进行对比分析。结果表明:系统微分响应方法在VIC模型中的修正效果较好,纳什效率系数从修正前的0.752提高到0.895,径流相对误差从修正前的7.89%降低到5.71%,而AR模型修正结果的纳什效率系数为0.807,径流相对误差为6.77%,这两种修正方法结果表明系统微分响应方法优于AR模型误差修正方法。结果表明系统微分响应修正方法在VIC模型中具有较好的适用性,能显著提高流域日径流模拟精度,可应用于未来的水文预报。

     

    Abstract: In the process of applying the hydrological model to hydrological forecasting, there are many simplifications and assumptions in the structure of the basin hydrological model, which will bring errors to the hydrological forecasting results. Therefore, error correction technology is needed to improve the accuracy of the hydrological model in real-time forecasting. The system differential response method uses the system response function to modify the forecast results by modifying the inputs, state variables and parameters of the hydrological model.This method has a solid theoretical foundation, simple structure, and the advantages of not losing the forecast period. It has been widely used in multiple watershed hydrological model with good results. VIC model is a large-scale distributed hydrological model, which divides the watershed into multiple grids of the same size to simulate runoff generation and concentration results within the grid. This paper takes the Jianyang Basin of the Minjiang River as the research area, constructs a basin VIC model for runoff simulation, applies the system differential response error correction method to the VIC model, corrects the forecast results by modifying the rainfall in the model input, and compares and analyzes it with the traditional autoregressive model error correction method(AR model). The results show that the system differential response method has a good correction effect in the VIC model, with the Nash efficiency coefficient increasing from 0.752 to 0.895 before correction, and the relative error of runoff decreasing from 7.89% to 5.71%. The Nash efficiency coefficient of the AR model correction result is 0.807, and the relative error of runoff is 6.77%. The results of these two correction methods indicate that the system differential response method is superior to the AR model error correction method. The system differential response correction method has good applicability in the VIC model, which can significantly improve the accuracy of daily runoff simulation in the basin and can be applied to future hydrological forecasting processes.

     

/

返回文章
返回