高级检索+

水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调的动态演化与空间特征分析——以河北省为例

Dynamic Evolution and Spatial Characteristics Analysis of Water-Energy-Food System Coupling and Coordination:A Case Study of Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 水、能源和粮食三大资源系统紧密关联,具有重要的纽带关系,三者的耦合协调发展关系国家资源战略安全与可持续发展。为探究高耗能地区水-能源-粮食(Water-Energy-Food,WEF)系统耦合协调发展水平,设计了包含三层24个指标的综合评价体系;结合熵值法和层次分析法优化指标权重,基于耦合协调模型和空间探索性分析对河北省WEF系统的耦合协调度的变动趋势和空间分布特征进行测算;从时间维度对比分析系统整体和子系统的发展特征,从空间维度对河北省11个城市的耦合协调度进行空间自相关检验,探索空间集聚模式。研究结果表明:河北省WEF系统综合评价指数在区间0.42~0.58内小幅度,增长缓慢且长期处于中等发展水平,WEF系统整体及两两子系统的耦合度值接近1,说明子系统间高度耦合;系统整体的耦合协调度在0.64~0.73区间内水平波动,WEF系统正由初级协调发展阶段向中级协调发展阶段过渡,水粮系统的耦合协调水平最高已进入高度协调阶段,水能系统和能粮系统耦合协调发展水平较为落后;在耦合协调度的空间分布上,河北省东北地区为低低集聚,中部地区为低高集聚或高高集聚,其余大部分城市的耦合协调度未呈现显著的空间集聚特征,其空间分布具有随机性,说明除了地理空间距离,WEF系统耦合协调度还受到各城市的产业结构特征和自身资源优势等因素的影响。

     

    Abstract: The three major resource systems of water,energy and food are closely related to each other and have an important bond relationship,the coupling and coordinated development of the three is related to the security and sustainable development of the national resource strategy. In order to explore the level of water-energy-food(WEF)system coupling and coordinated development in high-energy-consuming areas,this paper designs a comprehensive evaluation system with 24 indicators in three layers. Combined with the entropy value method and the analytic hierarchy method to optimize the index weights,based on the coupling coordination model and spatial exploratory analysis,the variation trend and spatial distribution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the WEF system in Hebei Province are calculated. From the time dimension,the development characteristics of the system as a whole and subsystem are compared and analyzed. Spatial autocorrelation test of coupling coordination degree of 11 cities in Hebei Province is carried out from the spatial dimension,and the spatial agglomeration patterns are explored. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEF system in Hebei Province is small in the range of 0.42~0.58,the growth is slow and the long-term development level is medium,the coupling degree value of the WEF system as a whole and two subsystems are close to 1,and the coupling between the subsystems is highly coupled. The coupling coordination degree of the system as a whole fluctuates horizontally in the range of 0.64~0.73,the WEF system is transitioning from the primary coordinated development stage to the intermediate coordinated development stage,the coupling and coordination level of the water and food system has entered the highly coordinated stage,and the level of coupling and coordinated development of the water energy system and the energy and food system is relatively backward. In terms of the spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree,the northeast region of Hebei Province is low and low agglomeration,the central region is low and high agglomeration or high agglomeration,and the coupling coordination degree of most other cities does not show significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and its spatial distribution has randomness,indicating that in addition to geographical spatial distance,the coupling coordination degree of WEF system is also affected by the industrial structure characteristics of each city and its own resource advantages.

     

/

返回文章
返回