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基于SWAT模型的沁河流域短中长期综合干旱指数构建及适用性分析

The Construction and Applicability Analysis of the Short-term,Mid-term and Long-term Comprehensive Drought Index of Qinhe River Basin Based on SWAT Model

  • 摘要: 由于单一干旱指数评价干旱存在局限性,故构建新型综合干旱指数PCAprs为沁河流域的干旱监测及防御提供理论支持。基于SWAT模型模拟的沁河流域的水文气象要素,计算沁河流域的3种干旱指数:标准化降水蒸散发指数((Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI))、标准化径流指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI)、标准化土壤湿度指数(Standardized Soil Moisture Index,SSI),将3种干旱指数通过主成分分析方法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)结合,构建沁河流域短中长期综合干旱指数;结果表明:(1)构建的综合干旱指数反映的干旱监测结果与实际干旱事件一致,且相比单一干旱指数,综合干旱指数综合了降水、蒸散发、土壤湿度及径流等多种因素,对沁河流域旱情的描述更加符合实际;对沁河流域干旱评价更加全面;(2)不同时间尺度的综合干旱指数对识别不同历时的干旱事件更具针对性;(3)短中期综合干旱指数可用于监测研究区旱情的相对实时变化;而长期综合干旱指数更适合描述长期的干旱发展趋势。说明该综合指数可用于沁河流域的干旱监测,为该区域的抗旱研究提供新的参考。

     

    Abstract: Due to the limitations of a single drought index in evaluating drought,a new comprehensive drought index(PCAprs)is constructed to provide theoretical support for drought monitoring and defense in the Qinhe River Basin. Based on the hydrological and meteorological elements of the Qinhe River Basin simulated by the SWAT model,this paper calculates three drought indices in the Qinhe River Basin:Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),Standardized Runoff Index(SRI),Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSI). The combination of three drought indexes through Principal Component Analysis(PCA)methods constructs the Qinhe River Basin’s short-term,medium-term and long-term PCAprs;the results show that:(1) The constructed PCAprsreflects the drought monitoring results that are consistent with actual drought events. Compared with a single drought index,PCAprsintegrates precipitation,evapotranspiration,soil moisture and runoff and other factors,the description of the drought in the Qinhe River Basin is more realistic;the evaluation of the drought in the Qin River Basin is more comprehensive;(2)PCAprsof different time scales is more targeted for identifying drought events of different duration;(3) The short-term PCAprsand the mid-term PCAprscan be used to monitor the real-time changes of drought in the study area;and the long-term PCAprsis more suitable for describing the long-term drought development trend. It shows that PCAprscan be used for drought monitoring in the Qinhe River Basin,and provides a new reference for drought resistance research in this region.

     

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