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基于Apriori算法的沿海地区洪涝灾害成因分析

Discussion on Flood Hazard and Causes Analysis in Coastal Areas by Using the Apriori Algorithm

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与城市化快速发展的背景下,城市洪涝灾害愈加频繁,严重影响人民生命财产安全和社会可持续发展,在变化环境下对城市洪涝灾害的评估及成灾机理的研究显得尤为重要。目前不同学者对灾害的认知和定义不同,洪水灾害风险评估方法仍未形成统一标准,相关指标评估体系的客观性与一致性有一定限制。以沿海地区——广东省湛江市赤坎区为例,提出一种基于k-means聚类和Apriori算法的洪涝灾害评估与成因分析框架,首先利用kmeans对各洪水影响因子进行聚类,其次采用关联规则挖掘来识别评估洪涝灾害的最佳降雨指标,最后选取高程、坡度、不透水率和距河距离等环境因素作为洪水影响因子,并结合最佳降雨指标与历史洪涝灾害数据提取关联规则,用以分析不同等级洪涝灾害的成因。结果表明,多年平均最大24 h降雨是评估该区域洪涝灾害的最适宜降雨指标。洪涝灾害多发生于不透水率高的居民区,地势平缓低洼地区容易引发更严重的洪涝灾害。其中,0.20~0.55 m范围淹没水深的中度内涝中,距河距离小于284.61 m致灾效果最显著;0.55~1.00 m范围淹没水深的重度内涝中,坡度小于1.72°和-7~8 m范围高程致灾作用更为明显。此外,多年平均最大24 h降雨作为中度内涝事件发生的最直接驱动要素,但在重度内涝成灾机制中地位有所下降,此时环境因素的重要性有所提升。相关结果可为城市洪涝灾害风险管理提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Urban flood disaster has become more frequent and serious due to the global climate change and rapid urbanization, which seriously affects the safety of people’s lives and the sustainable development of the society. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the assessment and disaster mechanism of urban flood disasters under the changing environment. There is still no widely accepted standard in flood hazard and risk assessment due to the varying perceptions and definitions of disasters by different researchers, and the flood hazard and risk assessment related indictors or methods are very uncertain and less objective. This study proposes a framework for analyzing flood disasters in Chikan District, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province by using k-means clustering and the Apriori algorithm. Firstly, k-means method is used to cluster each flood influencing factor. Secondly, association rule mining is used to identify the best precipitation index for evaluating flood disasters. Finally, environmental factors such as elevation, slope, impermeability and distance from the river are selected as flood influencing factors. They are combined with the best precipitation index and historical flood disaster data to extract association rules to investigate the forming mechanisms of different levels of flood disasters.Results show that flood hazards are frequent in this region, especially in urbanized areas with high impermeability, and gentle and low-lying areas are prone to more serious flood disasters. The accumulated 24-h rainfall is the most effective precipitation index in the Chikan District. When the inundation depth is 0.20~0.55 m for moderate waterlogging, the main hazard trigger is the distance from river(e.g., less than 284.61 m), and when the inundation depth is 0.55~1.00 m for severe waterlogging, the main trigger would be the slope(e.g., less than 1.72°) and elevation(e.g.,-7~8 m). In addition, as the most direct driving factor for the occurrence of moderate waterlogging events, the accumulated 24-h rainfall has decreased in the mechanism of severe waterlogging disasters, which indicates that the importance of environmental factors has increased in this case. These results would be helpful for providing procedures and solutions for urban flood risk management.

     

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