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我国区域用水总量演变规律及驱动效应研究

Research on the Evolution Law and Driving Effects of Total Regional Water Use in China

  • 摘要: 针对当前我国稳步推进的节水和水网建设的工作需求,以及水资源时空分布严重不均,各地区经济发展水平、人口规模等存在较大差异的特点,利用我国2000-2020年各省级行政区的用水量、产业增加值、人口结构等数据,采用LMDI指数分解法和GDP不变价换算方法,从时间和空间两个角度分析了各分区用水总量、用水结构变化差异以及用水强度、产业结构、经济规模和人口规模四方面驱动效应的强度和贡献比例,旨在支撑我国水资源规划和管理以及用水结构调整。从时间角度,经济增长是我国用水总量增加的最主要驱动因素,行业用水强度降低和产业结构调整尤其是第一产业用水强度和占比的降低是抑制区域用水总量增加的主要因素,其中用水强度效应略大于产业结构效应,而人口规模增加对用水总量增加的作用效果不明显,因此我国的用水量控制应该在提高用水效率、优化升级产业结构的策略上。从空间角度方面,我国各大分区4种驱动效应对用水总量上升的促进或抑制作用稳定,西南、西北等内陆地区需要在优化产业结构的基础上大力发展经济规模,同时西北地区还迫切需要提高第一产业用水效率,而华东地区可适当控制人口规模,东北和西北则需要控制人口流出,以缩小我国各区域用水量的空间差异。

     

    Abstract: In view of the demand for water saving and water network construction in China, as well as the serious uneven temporal and spatial distribution of water resources, and the great differences in economic development level and population size among different regions, the data of water consumption, industrial added value and population structure of each provincial administrative region from 2000 to 2020 are used.The LMDI index decomposition method and GDP constant price conversion method were used to analyze the difference of total water use, water use structure change, and the intensity and contribution ratio of driving effects of water use intensity, industrial structure, economic scale and population size in each region from two perspectives of time and space, aiming to support China’s water resources planning and management as well as water use structure adjustment. From the perspective of time, economic growth is the most important driving factor for the increase of total water use in China. The decrease of industrial water use intensity and industrial structure adjustment, especially the decrease of water use intensity and proportion in the primary industry, are the main factors inhibiting the increase of regional total water use.The effect of water use intensity is slightly greater than that of industrial structure, while the increase of population size has no obvious effect on the increase of total water use. Therefore, China’s water consumption control should be based on the strategy of improving water use efficiency and optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure. From the perspective of space, the four driving effects in the major regions of China promote or inhibit the increase of total water use steadily. In order to narrow the spatial difference of water consumption in different regions of China, inland areas such as Southwest and Northwest of China need to vigorously develop economic scale on the basis of optimizing the industrial structure; meanwhile, Northwest of China also urgently needs to improve water use efficiency in the primary industry; while East China can properly control the population size, the northeast and northwest need to control the population outflow.

     

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