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沂河水质评价模型研究及其应用

Study and Application of Water Quality Evaluation Model in the Yihe River

  • 摘要: 为了研究影响流域水质的关键水质指标,以沂河为研究区域,基于2006-2019年水质数据,采用水质指数法对河流水质进行评价与建模。水质指数可以将大量复杂的水质数据转变为一个单独指标来反映水质整体状况,目前常被用于进行水质评价。共分析10个水质指标,包括TP、pH、WT、DO、NO3-N、BOD5、F-、COD、SO42-和NH3-N。基于多元线性回归分析筛选流域关键水质指标,构建了沂河关键水质指标评价模型WQImin,简化了评价所需的水质指标。结果表明:无论是否加权,四指标模型和六指标模型的拟合程度和预测精度都未达到最高,不是本研究的最优模型;五指标模型WQImin+WTw具有良好的水质评价性能,R2=0.972,MSE=0.51,PE=2.07%,P<0.05,是本研究最优关键水质指标模型。该模型包括5个水质指标:NH3-N、BOD5、DO、SO42-和WT,与WQI模型呈极显著正相关关系(P<0.001),对WQI的解释程度最大,不仅保持了评价精度,而且有效降低了检测成本,提高了水资源评价效率,能有效替代WQI模型进行流域水质评价。此外,基于同样的样本数据开发了人工神经网络模型,可有效应用于沂河水环境状态评价与预测,为沂河水质未来变化趋势提供参考,为水环境智能化模拟提供新的技术途径。

     

    Abstract: To study the key water quality indexes affecting the water quality of the basin, this paper selects Yihe River as the research area.The annual water quality monitoring data and laboratory sampling data of the Yihe River from 2006 to 2019 are used to evaluate and model the river water quality by using the water quality index method. Water quality index(WQI) can transform a large number of complex water quality data into a single index. This single index can reflect the overall state of water quality, so the water quality index is often used to evaluate water quality at present. A total of 10 water quality indexes including total phosphorus(TP), pH, water temperature(WT), dissolved oxygen(DO), nitrate nitrogen(NO3-N), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand(BOD5), fluoride(F-), chemical oxygen demand(COD), sulfate(SO42-), and ammonia nitrogen(NH3-N) are analyzed. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis, the key water quality index evaluation model WQImin of the Yihe River is established. The indexes involved in the evaluation of the Yihe River water quality are reduced.The results of this paper are as follows. When the water quality index is not weighted, the fitting degree and prediction accuracy of the fourindex water quality assessment model and the six-index water quality assessment model do not reach the highest; when the water quality index is weighted, the fitting degree and prediction accuracy of the four-index water quality assessment model and the six-index water quality assessment model do not reach the highest, too. Neither of these two simplified index models is the optimal critical water quality evaluation model in this study. Through model training and testing, the weighted five-index model WQImin+WTw has good water quality evaluation performance, R~2=0.972,MSE=0.51,PE=2.07%,P<0.05, and is the optimal key water quality index model in this study. The WQImin+WTw model is a weighted five-index water quality evaluation model, including five water quality indexes: NH3-N, BOD5, DO, SO42-, and WT, which shows a significant positive correlation with the WQI model(P<0.001). The weighted five-index model not only maintains the accuracy of water quality evaluation, but also effectively reduces the cost of water quality index detection, improves the efficiency of water resources evaluation, and can effectively replace the WQI model for water quality evaluation in the basin. In addition, the artificial neural network model is developed based on the same sample data, which can be effectively applied to the evaluation and prediction of water quality in the Yihe River. On the one hand, the artificial neural network model can provide a reference for the future change trend of water quality in the Yihe River.On the other hand, the artificial neural network model can provide a new technical way for the intelligent simulation of water environment.

     

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