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川东南水资源生态足迹及生态承载力时空分析研究

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Southeast Sichuan

  • 摘要: 随着城镇化持续推进,水资源供需矛盾不断升级,水资源问题日益凸显,已严重制约地区经济的健康发展。因此,定量评价水资源生态承载状态,为地区可持续发展提供科学依据。收集了川东南地区2005-2019年的经济、人口及水资源等数据,基于水资源生态足迹等模型,计算了川东南地区水资源可持续指标,并对其时空变化特征进行了分析和探讨。结果表明:(1)2005-2019年,人均水资源生态足迹整体走势为先增后减;水资源生态承载力波动幅度较大,其变化轨迹与降水量有较为密切的关系;水资源量为生态盈余,水资源处于可持续发展的状态,能满足目前社会经济发展的需要。(2)2005-2019年,亿元GDP水资源生态足迹逐年降低,表明区域水资源利用效率逐渐提高;水资源负载指数处于在Ⅱ和Ⅲ级之间,表明区域水资源开发利用程度高,暂不需跨区域调水;水资源可持续指数常年处于0.7~0.9之间,可持续状态处于中可持续与强可持续。(3)2015-2019年,各地级市水资源生态足迹、生态承载力以及生态盈亏等指标存在空间上的差异。乐山市、眉山市水资源量相对丰富,经济发展与水资源利用的协调关系较好;泸州市和宜宾市的水资源生态盈余处于中低值水平,其水资源生态承载力有待提高;自贡市、内江市以及资阳市的水资源生态承载力低、水资源生态盈余小,水资源生态压力较大。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous advancement of urbanization, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has been escalating, and the water resources problem has become increasingly prominent, which has seriously restricted the healthy development of regional economy. Therefore, the quantitative evaluation of ecological carrying state of water resources can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region. Collecting the data of economy, population and water resources in Southeast Sichuan from 2005 to 2019, based on the model of water resource ecological footprint, the sustainable index of water resources in southeast Sichuan is calculated by analyzing and discussing its spatio-temporal variation characteristics. The results show that:(1) From 2005 to 2019, the overall trend of ecological footprint of water resources per-capita increased first and then decreased; the ecological carrying capacity of water resources fluctuated greatly, and its change trajectory was closely related to precipitation; the amount of water resources was ecological surplus, and water resources were in a state of sustainable development, which could satisfy the needs of current social and economic development.(2) From 2005to 2019, the water resources ecological footprint of 108 yuan of GDP decreased year by year, indicating that the regional water resource utilization efficiency gradually improved; the water resources load index was between grade Ⅱ and Ⅲ, indicating that the development and utilization degree of regional water resources was high, and there was no need to transfer water across the region; the sustainable index of water resources was between 0.7 and 0.9 all the year round, and the sustainable state was medium sustainable and strong sustainable.(3) From 2015 to 2019, there were spatial differences in water resources of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological profit and loss among prefecture-level cities. Leshan and Meishan were relatively rich in water resources, and there was a good coordination between economic development and water resources utilization; the ecological profit and loss of water resources in Luzhou and Yibin were in the middle-low level, and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources needed to be improved. In Zigong, Neijiang and Ziyang, the ecological carrying capacity of water resources were low, the ecological profit and loss of water resources were small and the ecological pressure of water resources were large.

     

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