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受上游调控影响的水库入库流量预报方法研究

Research on the Forecast Method of Reservoir Inflow Affected by Upstream Regulation

  • 摘要: 流域梯级水电站之间水流演进计算存在两个方面的问题:一是因库容曲线、泄流特性曲线及机组耗流量特性曲线等不够精确,计算的出库水量和时段库容变化量不可避免的存在误差,从而导致梯级水电站之间的水量不平衡问题;二是短时段计算所得到的入库流量过程“锯齿”现象严重。针对这两个问题,本文提出一种受上游水库调控影响的日时段入库流量预报方法,将入库流量分为上游水库出库流量与区间产汇流两部分,以日为时段长,以水量平衡理论、马斯京根汇流系数法以及API模型为理论基础,在上游水库出流的河道演算中引入修正系数处理区间来水或引水问题,应用API模型计算区间产汇流过程。通过郁江流域西津水库的实际应用表明,率定期纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.943,检验期纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.914。结果表明该方法充分考虑了水文学基本原理和流域水电站水库运行实际情况,可有效解决梯级水电站间水量不平衡问题并有效避免了短时段入库流量的波动问题。

     

    Abstract: There are two problems in the calculation of water flow evolution between cascade hydropower stations in the basin. One is that due to the imprecision of storage capacity curve,discharge characteristic curve and unit consumption characteristic curve,there are inevitable errors in the calculated outgoing water volume and the change of storage capacity during the period,resulting in water imbalance between cascade hydropower stations. Second,the“sawtooth”phenomenon in the process of inflow flow obtained by short-term calculations is serious.To solve the two problems,this paper proposes a daily inflow forecasting method affected by the regulation of the upstream reservoir. The inflow is divided into two parts:the inflow of the upstream reservoir and the runoff of the interval. Taking the day as the length of the period,and based on the water balance theory,Muskingum confluence coefficient methodand API model,a correction coefficient is introduced into the river routing of the outflow of the upstream reservoir to deal with the problem of interval inflow or diversion,API model is used to calculate the interval runoff process. The practical application of Xijin Reservoir in Yujiang River Basin shows that the periodic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)is 0.943 and the inspection period Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)is 0.914. This method fully considers the basic principle of hydrology and the actual operation of hydropower stations and reservoirs in the basin,which can effectively solve the problem of water imbalance between cascade hydropower stations and effectively avoid the fluctuation of inflow in a short period of time.

     

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