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大型水光互补电站的光伏捆绑容量规划

Optimal Sizing of Photovoltaic Power Generation for Integration into a Large Hydropower Plant

  • 摘要: 多能互补运行是促进新能源消纳的有效途径,合理确定多能互补系统中新能源捆绑容量,对于增加不同能源的协同性,进而发挥多能互补效能具有重要作用。针对传统容量配置模型对互补运行过程考虑不够精细的问题,在模拟大型水光互补电站精细化运行过程的基础上,结合成本效益分析提出最优光伏捆绑容量规划方法。首先,在不同光伏装机规模下,构建互补中长期优化调度模型,确定长期时段的水量和电量分配;其次,在中长期调度边界条件下,构建互补短期优化调度模型,模拟日发电计划编制和实时运行,计算对应的光伏弃电率;最后,基于成本效益分析方法构建装机容量规划模型,以光伏电站全生命周期净效益最大为目标确定最优光伏捆绑容量。以忠玉水光互补工程为研究对象,结果表明:(1)当光伏装机容量在500 MW以下时,光伏弃电率维持在2%以内,随着光伏装机容量的增加,光伏弃电率迅速上升;(2)在0.1元/kWh的上网电价条件下,光伏电站的净现值总为负值,经济性较差;(3)在0.353元/kWh的上网电价条件下,装机容量为1 030 MW的水电站所能捆绑的最优光伏装机为1 900 MW,考虑径流随机性的光伏电站全生命周期效益的净现值区间为46.2~54.6亿元。研究方法可为流域水风光一体化系统的精准容量配置提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Hybrid generation of multiple energy sources is an effective way to promote the accommodation of new energies. It is of great significance to enhance the synergy of different energy sources by determining a reasonable size of the renewable power plant within the hybrid system, thereby enhancing the system’s complementary performance. However, the traditional capacity configuration model for the hybrid system has the disadvantage that the complementary operation process is not accurately simulated. This paper proposes an optimal sizing method on the basis of simulating the refined operation process of large-scale hydro-photovoltaic(PV) complementary power plants to determine the PV size. First, a long-term optimal operation model for the hydro-PV system is modeled under each possible PV size, which determines long-term water and energy allocation strategies. Second, a short-term optimal operation model for the hydro-PV system is established to determine a daily power generation plan and the corresponding PV curtailment rate, constraint by the long-term operation strategy. Finally, the optimal PV size is determined based on a cost-benefit analysis model, aiming at maximizing the net present value of the PV plant over its lifetime. Zhongyu hydro-PV complementary project is selected as a case study. Results show that:(1) when the installed capacity of PV is below 500 MW, the curtailment rate of PV remained within 2%, but the curtailment rate of PV rises rapidly with the increase PV size;(2) when the feed-in tariff is 0.1 CNY/kWh, the net present value of photovoltaic power plants is always negative, and the economy performance is poor;(3) when the feed-in tariff is 0.353 CNY/kWh, the optimal PV installed capacity is 1 900 MW integrated with a hydropower plant with an installed capacity of 1 030 MW, and associated net present value of the PV plant over its life-time ranged from 46.2 to 54.6 billion CNY when the long-term variability of the reservoir inflow is considered.

     

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