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长江黄河源区不同径流组分变化及成因分析

Variation and Causal Analysis of Different Runoff Components in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River

  • 摘要: 长江源区和黄河源区地处青藏高原腹地,是全球气候变化的敏感区,其区域内不同径流组分受到气候变化的强烈影响,径流组分的变化尤其是高流量的变化可能会对流域生态和人类生产活动造成一系列的影响。为探究长江源区和黄河源区不同径流组分变化特征及其变化原因,在长江源区和黄河源区多年径流和气象数据的基础上,利用流量历时曲线Flow Duration Curve(FDC)、Mann-Kendall(M-K)法和多元线性回归等多种方法进行了相关研究。研究结果表明:(1)长江源区高流量(Q10~Q30)、中流量(Q40~Q60)和低流量(Q70~Q90)在1964-2021年期间分别以4.68、2.18和0.38 m3/(s·a)的速率增加;黄河源区高流量与总流量在1962-2021年期间变化趋势一致,分别以1.99和0.16 m3/(s·a)的速率减小,但其中流量和低流量分别以0.12和0.68 m3/(s·a)的速率增加。(2)在1979-2018年期间,降水增加是导致长江源区高流量和中流量增加的主要原因,其对高流量和中流量变化的贡献率分别为92.93%和71.17%;气温上升则是导致长江源区低流量增加的主要原因,其对低流量变化的贡献率达77.72%。(3)在1979-2018年期间,气温上升是导致黄河源区高流量和中流量减小的主要原因,其对高流量和中流量变化的贡献率分别为-58.79%和-53.98%;降水增加是导致黄河源区低流量增加的主要原因,其对低流量的贡献率为67.11%。研究可为气候变化背景下长江黄河源区水资源管理及生态环境保护提供一定的参考。

     

    Abstract: The source area of Yangtze River(SAYAR) and the source area of the Yellow River(SAYER) are located in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which are sensitive areas for global climate change. Different runoff components in these regions are strongly affected by climate change, and changes in runoff components, especially high flow, may cause a series of impacts on the ecology and human production activities. To investigate the characteristics and the reasons of different runoff components for their changes, relevant studies are conducted based on multi-year runoff and meteorological data of SAYAR and SAYER with the methods such as flow duration curve(FDC), MannKendall(M-K) method and multiple linear regression. The results show that:(1)The high flow(Q10~Q30), medium flow(Q40~Q60) and low flow(Q70~Q90) in SAYAR increases at the rates of 4.68, 2.18 and 0.38 m3/(s·a), respectively, during 1964-2021; the high flow and total discharge in SAYER had the same trend during 1962-2021, decreasing at the rate of 1.99 and 0.16 m3/(s·a) respectively, but the medium flow and low flow increased at rates of 0.12 and 0.68 m3/(s·a), respectively.(2) During the period from 1979 to 2018, the increase in precipitation was the main reason for the increase in high flow and medium flow in SAYAR, and its contribution rate to the change of high flow and medium flow was 92.93% and 71.17%, respectively. The temperature rise was the main reason for the increase in low flow in SAYAR, and its contribution rate to the change of low flow was 77.72%.(3) During the period from 1979 to 2018, the increase in temperature was the main reason for the reduction of high flow and medium flow in SAYER, and its contribution to the change of high flow and medium flow was-58.79% and-53.98%, respectively. The increase in precipitation was the main reason for the increase of low flow in SAYER, and its contribution rate to the low flow was 67.11%.This paper may provide some reference for water resources management and ecological environment protection in the source regions of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River under the background of climate change.

     

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