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基于改进五元联系数集对势排序法的长江上游洪水遭遇分析

An Analysis of the Flood Encounter in the Upper Yangtze River Based on the Improved Set Pair Situation Ordering Method of Five-Element Connection Number

  • 摘要: 长江上游干流与支流、支流与支流、上游与下游的洪水遭遇现象加重了防洪的严峻形势,流域暴雨洪涝灾害频发,严重影响了沿岸地区的稳定发展,有必要全面系统地分析洪水遭遇规律与发生态势。采用水文统计分析方法,从洪水遭遇次数及遭遇时间、洪峰遭遇及最大7 d和15 d洪水过程遭遇量级、最大7 d和15 d洪水过程重叠天数等多个角度,分析长江上游流域干流与支流、支流与支流、上游与下游十种不同组合的洪水遭遇规律。进而采用改进五元联系数集对势排序方法对洪峰遭遇、最大7 d和15 d洪水过程遭遇的严重程度以及最大7 d和15 d洪水过程遭遇的重叠程度进行了集对势级排序与分析。结果表明,发生洪水遭遇时,长江上游各种洪水组合洪峰、洪量的总体遭遇态势不严重,但最大7 d和15 d洪水过程重叠程度处于较高水平,表现出洪水持续时间长、过程洪量大,尤其乌江与长江干流在宜昌站的最大7 d洪量重叠程度特别严重,给宜昌站及其下游的荆江分洪区带来较大的防洪压力。改进的五元联系数集对势排序方法保留了逻辑上成立的181种势级,从同势、均势、反势角度定量刻画了洪水遭遇指标与严重等级间的联系趋势,将洪水遭遇严重程度细致、准确地量化为不同势级,有助于快速判断防洪重点,为实施科学调度提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Flood encounter in the main stream and tributaries, tributaries and tributaries, upper and lower reaches aggravate the severe situation of flood control in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The frequent occurrence of rainstorm and flood disaster in the basin seriously affects the stable development of the coastal area. It is necessary to analyze the law and situation of flood encounter comprehensively and systematically. Based on the hydrological statistical analysis method, the flood encounter rules of ten different combinations of the main stream and tributaries, tributaries and tributaries, upstream and downstream of the upper Yangtze River Basin are analyzed from the aspects of flood encounter times and time, peak encounter and magnitude of maximum 7-day and 15-day flood process encounter, and maximum 7-day and 15-day flood process overlap days. Then the severity of flood peak, the severity of maximum for 7 days and 15 days flood process, and the overlap degree of maximum for 7 days and 15 days flood process are sorted and analyzed by using the improved five-element connection number set pair situation sorting method.The results show that, when a flood happens, the overall situation of peak and flood volume of various flood combinations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is not serious, but the overlapping degree of the maximum 7-day and 15-day flood processes is at a high level, which shows that the flood lasts for a long time and the process flood volume is large. In particular, the overlapping degree of the maximum 7-day flood volume of Wujiang River and the mainstream of the Yangtze River at Yichang Station is especially serious, which brings great flood control pressure to Yichang Station and its downstream Jingjiang flood diversion area. The improved fiveelement connection number set pair potential ranking method retains 181 logically established potential levels, quantitatively depicts the connection trend between flood encounter indicators and severity levels from the angles of equal potential, balance of potential and reverse potential, and quantifies the severity of flood encounter into different potential levels meticulously and accurately, which is helpful to quickly judge flood control priorities and provide a decision-making basis for implementing scientific dispatching.

     

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