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基于前期降雨指数的SCS-CN模型在三峡库区改进与应用

Improvement and Application of SCS-CN Model Based on Antecedent-Precipitation Index in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

  • 摘要: 径流是土壤流失的主要载体,准确预测径流量对于三峡库区土壤侵蚀预报和水库安全管理至关重要。为优化径流曲线数模型(SCS-CN)中土壤前期含水量核算方法,提高径流模拟准确性,研究通过引入前期降雨指数来表征土壤含水量,并基于实测的土壤饱和含水量设定上限阈值,对SCS-CN模型进行了改进,利用忠县水土保持监测站2019-2022年的场次降雨径流监测数据评估了模型准确性,并对改进前后模型在不同降雨类型和土地利用条件的适用性进行评价。结果表明,在两种初始模型和两种改进模型中,基于MSCS-CN改进的模型(M4)对于径流深的模拟精度更高,纳什效率系数(NSE)较原始SCS-CN模型(M1)提高了134%,尤其是在前期土壤含水量达饱和状态的情况下NSE提升至0.74,引入最大前期降雨指数(APImax)作为前期降雨指数上限值能减弱以往模型对高径流事件预测值的高估。此外,改进模型M4对三峡库区主要的产流性降雨类型(高雨强)以及主要的土地利用(耕地、果园)适用性良好,有效提高了小雨量产流事件和高侵蚀风险土地利用类型的径流模拟精度(雨型Ⅱ的NSE为0.66,耕地、果园NSE分别为0.69和0.75)。总体而言,改进模型M4提高了径流模拟精度,更适合三峡库区的产流机制、土地利用类型,能为三峡库区径流预测及水土流失防治工作提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Runoff is the main carrier of soil erosion. Accurate prediction of runoff is crucial for soil erosion forecast and reservoir safety management in the Three Gorges Reservoir. To optimize the SCS-CN model’s calculation method for soil antecedent moisture content and assess the model’s applicability before and after improvement in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, this study introduced the antecedent precipitation index to characterize soil moisture and set an upper limit threshold based on measured soil saturated moisture content, thereby improving the SCS-CN model. Using the rainfall-runoff data from the Zhongxian Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Station from 2019 to 2022, the applicability of the model before and after improvement under different rainfall types and land uses was evaluated. The results show that among the two initial models and two improved models, the improved model based on MSCS-CN(M4) has higher simulation accuracy for runoff depth, and the Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE) is improved by 134% compared with the original SCS-CN model(M1), especially for the case of saturated soil water content in the antecedent period where the NSE is improved to 0.74, and the introduction of the maximum antecedent precipitationindex(APImax) as the upper limit of the antecedent precipitation index can reduce the overestimation of the predicted values of high runoff events in previous models. In addition, the improved model M4 is well applicable to the main flow-producing rainfall types(high rainfall intensity) and the main land uses(croplands and orchards) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, and effectively improves the runoff simulation accuracy for the small rainfall-producing events and the land use types with high erosion risk(the Nash efficiency coefficients for Rain Type II, croplands, and orchards are 0.66, 0.69, and 0.75, respectively). Overall, the improved model M4 improves the accuracy of runoff simulation, and is more suitable for the runoff generation mechanism and land use types of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, which can provide a valuable reference for runoff prediction and soil and water loss prevention and control work in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

     

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