水利水电工程社会稳定风险的识别与评估
The Identification and Evaluation of Social Stability Risk of Hydro-engineering Project
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摘要: 为识别及评估水利水电工程的社会稳定风险,建立了风险评估的模糊灰关联故障树模型,模型用三角模糊数来表示基本事件的模糊概率;计算顶上时间模糊概率和基本事件的模糊重要度;以基本事件模糊重要度作为参考列,以最小割集组成的特征矩阵作为比较列,通过计算关联系数进而求出最小割集所代表的故障模式与顶上事件之间的灰色关联度。以QP水库进行了实例计算,表明移民安置问题是该水库建设的主要风险因子,符合水库建设实际。该模型适用于处理复杂系统问题,可为水利水电工程的社会风险评估,及建立科学的预警机制提供参考。Abstract: In order to identify and evaluate the social stability risk of water conservancy and hydropower projects,a fuzzy grey correlation fault tree model for risk assessment is established. The model uses triangular fuzzy number to represent the fuzzy probability of the basic event;calculates the fuzzy probability of the top event and the fuzzy importance of the basic event;takes the fuzzy importance of the basic event as the reference column,takes the characteristic matrix composed of the minimum cut set as the comparison column,and calculates the grey correlation between the fault mode represented by the minimum cut set and the top event by calculating the correlation coefficient. A case study of Qianping reservoir shows that resettlement is the main risk factor of the reservoir construction,which is in line with the reality of reservoir construction. The model is suitable for dealing with complex system problems,and can provide reference for the social risk assessment of water conservancy and hydropower projects and the establishment of scientific early warning mechanism.