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二元驱动下泾河流域蓝绿水变化归因分析

Attribution Analysis of Blue-green Water Change in Jinghe River Basin Driven by Duality

  • 摘要: 泾河流域地处黄土高原中部,是中国农牧业文明的发祥地之一,研究该流域的蓝绿水变化规律对黄土高原地区的水资源分配和水循环利用提供了重要思路,为最终实现“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展”总体目标提供保障。基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型和SUFI-2算法,首先分析泾河流域典型年份下蓝绿水资源量空间分布差异,其次采取情景设置法,分别固定气候要素和土地利用要素来设置情景,从而定量分析气候变化、土地利用变化等2种驱动因子对泾河流域蓝绿水变化的影响。模拟结果表明:(1)采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型频率曲线法确定典型年份:1997年为枯水年、2010年为平水年、2003年为丰水年。(2)丰水年的蓝绿水量最为丰富:丰水年的蓝水量是枯水年的5.4倍、平水年的1.8倍;绿水量是枯水年的1.4倍、平水年的1.1倍;枯水年的绿水系数最高,丰水年的绿水系数最低。(3)用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、滑动t检验法和累积距平法3种方法对1979-2019年张家山水文站径流进行突变分析,结果表明1996年是张家山水文站径流的突变年份。(4)1979-2019年,土地利用变化对泾河流域蓝绿水时空分布影响较小,气候变化下影响较大:蓝水量、绿水量分别增加了1.97、21.48 mm,绿水系数升高了0.52%,两者共同变化作用下与气候变化作用下的蓝绿水变化趋势一致,由此表明气候变化对泾河流域蓝绿水资源量有更强的影响力。

     

    Abstract: Jinghe River Basin is located in the middle of the Loess Plateau and is one of the birthplaces of China’s agricultural and animal husbandry civilization. Studying the change law of blue and green water in the basin provides an important idea for water resources allocation and water recycling in the Loess Plateau,and provides a guarantee for the final realization of the overall goal of“ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.”Based on SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)hydrological model and SUFI-2algorithm,firstly,the spatial distribution difference of blue-green water resources in Jinghe River Basin in typical years is analyzed. Secondly,the scenario setting method is adopted to set scenarios by fixing climate elements and land use elements respectively,so as to quantitatively analyze the impact of two driving factors such as climate change and land use change on blue-green water change in Jinghe River Basin. The simulation results show that:(1) the typical years are determined by Pearson Type III frequency curve method:1997 is a dry year,2010 is a flat year and 2003 is a wet year.(2) The amount of blue-green water in wet years is the most abundant:the amount of blue-green water in wet years is 5.4 times that in dry years and 1.8 times that in normal years.The amount of green water is 1.4 times that in dry years and1.1 times that in normal years. The green water coefficient is the highest in dry years and the lowest in wet years.(3) The runoff of Zhangjiashan Hydrological Station from 1979 to 2019 is analyzed by Mann Kendall mutation test,sliding t test and cumulative anomaly method. The results show that 1996 is the mutation year of runoff of Zhangjiashan Hydrological station.(4) From 1979 to 2019,land use change had little impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of blue and green water in the Jinghe River Basin,and had a greater impact under climate change:the blue water volume and green water volume increased by 1.97 and 21.48 mm respectively,and the green water coefficient increased by 0.52%. The change trend of blue and green water under the joint change of the two was consistent with that under climate change,which showed that climate change had a stronger impact on the amount of blue and green water resources in the Jinghe River Basin.

     

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