Abstract: In order to investigate the historical spatial and temporal evolution pattern and future state characteristics of water stress in Guangxi,the Mann-Kendall test is used to analyze the trend of water stress in Guangxi from 2002 to 2019 by using the water stress index as an indicator,and the Markov chain risk warning model is applied to forecast the water stress state in the study area from 2020 to 2022. The results show that the overall water stress in Guangxi is high in 2007 and 2009 to 2011,and the distribution of water stress matches the historical drought characteristics. The water stress in Guilin and Fangchenggang shows a significant decreasing trend,with a decrease rate of-0.004 5/a and-0.001 3/a. The prediction accuracy of the Markov chain risk warning model during the validation year（2017 to 2019）is66.67%,80% and 60% respectively,and the water stress state in Nanning,Beihai,Guigang,Yulin and Laibin will reach a medium-high stress state in 2022.