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河北省城镇居民生活层次化用水的影响因素分析

An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Urban Residents′ Living Hierarchical Water Use in Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 随着城镇化进程的不断加快,居民生活用水成为新的需水增长点。目前,大多数基于因素分解模型的研究偏向于用水总量的影响因素,对刚性、弹性、奢侈3个层次的居民生活用水因素的分解未见报道。在河北省城镇居民层次化需水研究的基础上,基于刚性、弹性、奢侈用水层次理论,构建居民层次化生活需水评判模型,并通过调查问卷进行参数率定,计算各用水行为的层次化用水量。为定量识别河北省各层次用水变化的影响因素,运用Kayal恒等式和LMDI分解法,计算了河北省11个城市人口规模、经济发展水平、节水技术水平对城镇居民刚性、弹性和奢侈3个层次用水变化的影响程度,并进行分析。结果表明:(1)人口规模效应和经济发展水平效应为正向促进效应,节水技术水平为负向抑制效应;全省来看,刚性用水中节水技术水平效应起主导作用,在弹性用水和奢侈用水中经济发展水平效应起主导作用。(2)大部分城市刚性用水呈增长趋势,其中经济发展水平起主要促进作用,节水技术发展有一定抑制作用;(3)除邢台市外,各城市弹性用水量均呈增长趋势,人口规模和经济发展对弹性用水量的增长起正向作用,节水技术水平效应对弹性用水量增长起抑制作用;(4)大部分城市奢侈用水量增长,人口增长和经济发展是增长的主要驱动因素,节水技术发展抑制增长。研究成果可为河北省水资源规划和管理提供参考,为提高居民节水水平与保障供水安全提供基础支撑。

     

    Abstract: With the acceleration of the urbanization process, residential water has become a new growth point of water demand. At present, most studies based on factor decomposition model are devoted to the influencing factors of total water use, and there is no report on the decomposition of residential water use factors at the rigid, elastic and luxury levels. Based on the research on the hierarchical water demand of urban residents in Hebei Province and the theory of rigid, elastic and luxury water levels, this paper constructs the hierarchical water demand evaluation model of residents, and carries out parameter calibration through questionnaires to calculate the hierarchical water consumption of each water use behavior. In order to quantitatively identify the influencing factors of water use change at different levels in Hebei Province, Kayal identity and LMDI decomposition method are used to calculate the influence degree of population size, economic development level and water-saving technology level on the rigid, elastic and luxury levels of urban residents in 11 cities in Hebei Province, and then analyzed. The results show that:(1) the population size effect and the level of economic development effect are positive promoting effect, while the level of water-saving technology is negative inhibiting effect; In the whole province, the effect of water-saving technology level in rigid water plays a leading role, and the effect of economic development level in flexible water and luxury water plays a leading role.(2) The rigid water consumption in most cities shows an increasing trend, in which the economic development level plays a major role in promoting, and the development of water-saving technology has a certain inhibitory effect;(3) Except Xingtai City, the elastic water consumption of all cities shows an increasing trend. Population size and economic development has a positive effect on the growth of elastic water consumption, and the effect of water-saving technology level has an inhibitory effect on the growth of elastic water consumption.(4) The growth of luxury water consumption in most cities is mainly driven by population growth and economic development, while the development of water-saving technologies inhibits the growth. The research results can provide a reference for water resources planning and management in Hebei Province, and provide basic support for improving residents′ water-saving level and ensuring water supply security.

     

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