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近40年黄河流域季节性植被覆盖时空动态及驱动因子探测

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristic and Driving Factors of Seasonal Vegetation Coverage in the Yellow River Basin in Recent 40 Years

  • 摘要: 黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障,但近年来由于持续的气候变化和不断增强的人类活动,已对黄河流域植被生长产生了显著影响。然而由于各种原因,目前对这种影响的程度和方向仍缺乏一致性共识。为揭示气候变化和人类活动对黄河流域植被生长的影响,基于1982-2015年GIMMS NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI)和2001-2020年MODIS NDVI数据、土地利用数据、地形数据和气候数据,辅以Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen斜率法和地理探测器法探究了近40年黄河流域不同季节植被NDVI时空变化及不同季节NDVI对不同因素的响应情况。结果表明1982-2020年黄河流域:(1)干旱区NDVI最低,其次为半干旱区,湿润区NDVI最高,NDVI的空间分布与水热资源空间分布一致。(2)NDVI整体以增加趋势为主。春季NDVI增加速率为0.001 2/a,2005年为NDVI变化突变年。夏季NDVI增加速率为0.001 4/a,2008年是NDVI变化突变年。秋季NDVI增加速率为0.001 5/a,2002年为NDVI变化突变年。冬季NDVI增加速率为0.000 4/a,2007年是NDVI变化突变年。(3)随着海拔高度增加NDVI增加速率减小,夏季最明显。坡度对春、冬季NDVI变化速率影响不大,但夏、秋季NDVI变化速率随坡度增加而减小。(4)日最高气温最小值(TXN)对NDVI的影响(q值)>日最低气温最大值(TNX)>日最低气温最小值(TNN)>年均气温(TEM)>土地利用(LUCC)>日最低气温最大值(TXX)>每年连续五天降雨量最大值(RX5DAY)>风速(WIN)>海拔(DEM)>坡度(SLOPE)>年均累计降水(PER)。任何两种因子的交互作用都大于或等于单个因子对NDVI的影响。TEM和PER对NDVI的影响随时间变化呈下降趋势,LUCC和SLOPE对NDVI的影响随时间变化呈增加趋势,极端温度和降水对NDVI的影响没有明显的时间趋势。研究表明:长时序数据能够揭示黄河流域植被NDVI时序和空间变化异同特征,为科学认识与评价整个流域生态状况和制定生态保护修复政策等提供数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: Vegetation coverage is an important indicator of land ecology. The Yellow River Basin is an important national ecological barrier. It is also an important economic zone and energy basin. In order to reveal the changes in the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin, based on the GIMMS NDVI data, land use data, topographic data and climate data and Mann Kendall, Sen method and geographical detectors, this paper explores the spatio-temporal dynamics of seasonal NDVI in the Yellow River Basin in recent 40 years and the contribution of different factors to seasonal NDVI changes. The results show that(1) the NDVI value in arid areas was the lowest, the second was the semi-arid area, the humid area had the highest NDVI and the second was the semi-humid area.(2) The increase rate of NDVI in spring was 0.001 2/a. The NDVI change in 2005 was abrupt. The increase rate of NDVI in summer was 0.001 4/a. 2008 was the year of NDVI mutation. The increase rate of NDVI in autumn was 0.001 5/a. The year 2002 was the mutation year of NDVI in autumn. The increase rate of NDVI in winter was 0.000 4/a. 2007 was the year of NDVI mutation.(3) The increase rate of NDVI decreased with the increase in altitude, especially in summer. The slope had little effect on the change rate of NDVI in spring and winter, but the change rate of NDVI in summer and autumn decreased significantly with the increase in slope.(4)The q influence of different factors on NDVI was the q determinant of the minimum value of daily maximum temperature(TXN) > the maximum value of daily minimum temperature(TNX) > the minimum value of daily minimum temperature(TNN) > average annual temperature(TEM) > land use(LUCC) > the maximum value of daily minimum temperature(TXX) >the maximum value of rainfall for five consecutive days each year(RX5DAY) > wind speed(WIN) > altitude(DEM) >SLOPE> average annual cumulative precipitation(PER). The interaction of any two factors was more than or equal to the effect of a single factor on NDVI. The q determinants of TEM and per on NDVI decreased with time, while the q determinants of LUCC and SLOPE increased. Extreme temperature and precipitation have no obvious time trend.

     

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