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张掖市干旱指数适用性及干旱演变分析

Applicability and Drought Evolution Analysis of Drought Index in Zhangye City

  • 摘要: 区域干旱是农业生产中的主要气象灾害之一,干旱指数在旱情监测、预警中发挥着基础性作用。本研究以张掖市为研究区,进行SPEI和scPDSI指数的适用性及干旱演变特征分析。从两种指数与相对湿度、径流量、归一化植被指数(NDVI)以及实际干旱记载对比分析可以看出,scPDSI与干旱历史事件的一致性较高,且与相对湿度、径流和NDVI相关性最显著。说明scPDSI在张掖具有较好适用性。基于scPDSI指数变化序列,通过M-K突变检验和小波周期分析方法,分析张掖地区1935-2017年干旱演变特征。结果表明研究区20世纪80年代后呈现明显的变湿趋势,存在多个干湿突变点,旱涝交替循环出现,有24、14、6 a三个显著周期,张掖地区干湿周期变化可能与太阳活动及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关。研究结果可为scPDSI在类似干旱区的应用提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Regional drought acts as one of the major meteorological disasters in agricultural production,and drought index plays a fundamental role in drought monitoring and early warning. Taking Zhangye City as the research area,this paper analyzes the applicability of SPEI and scPDSI index.With a comparative analysis of two indices with relative humidity,runoff,normalized vegetation index(NDVI)and actual drought records,it shows that there is high consistency between scPDSI and drought history events and scPDSI has the most significant correlation with relative humidity,runoff and NDVI index. It indicates that scPDSI has good applicability in Zhangye. Based on scPDSI exponential change sequence,the characteristics of drought evolution in Zhangye from 1935 to 2017 are analyzed by M-K mutation test and wavelet periodic analysis. It is found that the study area shows a tendency to become wet after the 1980 s,there are many dry and wet mutation points,with alternate cycles of drought and flood,and there are three distinct cycles of 24 a,14 a and 6 a. At the same time,changes of dry and wet cycle in Zhangye area may be related to solar activity and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)activity. The research findings serve as a reference for the application of scPDSI in similar arid areas.

     

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