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南水北调中线工程受水区农业水资源绿色效率时空演变规律研究

Research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution Law of Agricultural Water Resources Green Efficiency in Water-receiving Area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project’s Central Route

  • 摘要: 南水北调中线工程部分受水城市农业用水效率偏低、水污染严重等问题制约着地方农业的可持续发展,因此,提高各受水城市农业水资源绿色效率具有重要性和迫切性。采用2009-2020年20个受水城市的面板数据,以灰水足迹作为非期望产出,利用超效率SBM模型对南水北调中线工程受水区农业水资源绿色效率进行测度,分析其时空演变规律,利用Tobit模型识别其主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)2009-2020年受水区农业水资源绿色效率水平不高且整体呈现下降趋势,主要源于较低的规模效率。其中,北京市及河北省多数受水城市效率相对较高,而天津市及河南省多数受水城市效率较低。(2)受水区农业水资源绿色效率总差异主要源于地区内部尤其是河南省内部的差异,但是持续增加的省际差异推动总体差异不断扩大。(3)农业水资源绿色效率较高或较低的城市保持平稳转移的概率较大,而中水平城市在转移时存在较大的不稳定性。同时,受水区农业水资源绿色效率在空间分布上存在“近朱者赤,近墨者黑”的现象,在节水用水技术、水资源管理等方面高效率城市对邻近城市产生了正向的溢出效应,而低效率城市对邻近城市存在负向的拖累效应。(4)经济发展水平、农业化程度、农业固定资本、节水农业发展水平、水资源禀赋、供水结构是影响农业水资源绿色效率的主要因素。各受水城市要坚持绿色发展理念,促进南水北调中线工程农业水资源集约节约利用。

     

    Abstract: Low agricultural water use efficiency and serious water pollution restrict the sustainable development of local agriculture in some water-receiving cities of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project’s Central Route. Therefore, it is important and urgent to improve the green efficiency of agricultural water resources in each water-receiving city. This paper uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure the green efficiency of agricultural water in the area, and analyzes its spatial-temporal evolution law by using the panel data of 20 water-receiving cities from 2009 to 2020 and taking the grey water footprint as the undesired output. The Tobit model is used to identify the main influencing factors. The results show that:(1)From 2009 to 2020, the green efficiency of agricultural water in water-receiving area of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project’s Central Route was not high and showed a downward trend, mainly due to the low scale efficiency. Among them, the green efficiency in Beijing and in most cities in Hebei Province was relatively high, while Tianjin and most cities in Henan Province was low.(2)The overall differences of agricultural water green efficiency in water-receiving area mainly resulted from the differences within the regions, especially within Henan Province, but the increasing inter-provincial differences promoted the overall differences to expand.(3) Cities with high or low green efficiency of agricultural water had a high probability of stable transfer, while cities with medium level had a large instability in transfer. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of agricultural water efficiency had the phenomenon that the high-efficiency cities had a positive spillover effect on neighboring cities, while low-efficiency cities had a negative drag effect on neighboring cities in terms of water-saving technology and water resources management.(4)Economic development level, agricultural degree, agricultural fixed capital, water-saving agriculture development level, water resources endowment, water supply structure were the main factors affecting the green efficiency of agricultural water. All water-receiving cities should adhere to the concept of green development and promote the intensive and economical use of agricultural water resources in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project’s Central Route.

     

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