高级检索+

基于改进组合赋权法的区域水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Improved Combination Weighting Method

  • 摘要: 水资源作为人类生存和社会发展的重要资源,其承载力对区域实力提升与协调发展起到不容小觑的作用。针对水资源承载力评价中难以呈现空间关系和定量评价不准确的问题,以芜湖市为例从水资源-经济-生态三个方面选取出人均水资源量、产水模数、降雨量等16个评价指标,采取DEMATEL确定各元素间的影响关系,针对传统熵权法的缺陷将传统熵权法进行改良并计算其客观权重,利用网络层次分析法确定各指标主观权重,并采用乘法合成法将主客观权重进行组合,最后运用模糊综合评价法计算区域水资源承载力评价值构建了芜湖市水资源承载力评价体系。以芜湖市2006-2016年数据为例进行计算,结果表明:芜湖市水资源承载力评价值0.407 1~0.637 0之间,其最低值2006年(0.407 1),最高值为2016年(0.637 0),该地区水资源承载力除2011年、2013年以外均为上升趋势,水资源承载力处于临界状态。该方法更好的考虑了水资源承载力评价指标间相互影响的网络关系特点,改良了传统熵权法的缺陷,将主客观权重进行组合赋权进而更加可靠、准确地对水资源承载力进行评价。研究结果可为该地区水资源开发利用提供一定参考。

     

    Abstract: As an important resource for human survival and social development,the carrying capacity of water resources plays an important role in enhancing regional strength and coordinating development. Aiming at the problems that it is difficult to present spatial relationship and inaccurate quantitative evaluation in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,this paper takes Wuhu City as an example and selects 16 evaluation indexes such as per capita water resources,water production modulus and rainfall from three aspects of water resources,economy and ecology. DEMATEL is used to determine the influence relationship between each element. Aiming at the defects of traditional entropy weight method,the traditional entropy weight method is improved and its objective weight is calculated. The subjective weight of each index is determined by using network analytic hierarchy process,and the subjective and objective weights are combined by multiplication synthesis method. Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the evaluation value of regional water resources carrying capacity to construct the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity in Wuhu City. Taking the data of Wuhu City from2006 to 2016 as an example,the results show that the evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity in Wuhu City ranges from 0.407 1to 0.637 0,with the lowest value in 2006(0.407 1)and the highest value in 2016(0.637 0). The water resources carrying capacity in this area increased except in 2011 and 2013,and the water resources carrying capacity is in a critical state. This method better considers the characteristics of the network relationship between the evaluation indexes of water resources carrying capacity,improves the defects of the traditional entropy weight method,and combines the subjective and objective weights to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity more reliably and accurately. The research results can provide certain reference for the development and utilization of water resources in the region.

     

/

返回文章
返回