Abstract:
Exploring the propagation pattern of meteorological and hydrological drought is important for early warning and disaster mitigation of hydrological drought. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized runoff index(SRI)are calculated for different time scales based on the month-by-month precipitation,temperature and runoff data from 1960 to 2018 in the Ganjiang River basin,respectively. The characteristics of meteorological drought and hydrological drought are compared and analyzed by using operational theory and the Copula function conditional probability method,as well as the propagation pattern of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The results show that the changing process of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the Ganjiang River Basin on annual and seasonal scales is similar,and the changing trends show the same,and the drought index reflects that spring and winter droughts in the basin show an aggravating trend,while summer and autumn droughts show a weakening trend,and the summer drought intensity described by the SPEI index is heavier than that described by the SPI and SRI indices,while the winter drought intensity reflected by the SPEI index is weaker than that reflected by the other two drought indices. 87 and 75 meteorological drought events assessed by SPEI and SPI,respectively,and 65 hydrological drought events assessed by SRI. Although there are more meteorological drought events than hydrological drought events,hydrological drought events have longer durations and higher intensities. Drought propagation time fluctuates greatly within the year,with propagation time between 1 and 2 months during the rainy season and up to 6 months during the dry season,and the effect of temperature on drought propagation time is most pronounced in November and December. The optimal joint distribution function of meteorological and hydrological drought is Frank-Copula,and the probability of triggering hydrological drought events under meteorological drought conditions increases with the worsening of meteorological drought,while meteorological drought under the influence of temperature is more difficult to trigger hydrological drought events,but more likely to trigger more severe hydrological drought events. The results of the study contribute to the early monitoring and warning of hydrological drought events in the basin.