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黄河流域农业水利投资效率及影响因素分析

An Analysis of the Investment Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Water Conservancy in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 探究黄河流域农业水利投资效率及影响因素,有利于缓解流域农业水利投资资源错配问题,促进黄河流域农业高质量发展。运用MinDS模型对2014-2020年黄河流域农业水利投资效率进行测算,并结合核密度估计探讨其投资效率的时空分布动态演变特征,最后建立面板Tobit模型对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)全国和黄河流域的农业水利投资效率变动趋势基本一致,两者的差距在逐渐缩小。黄河流域农业水利投资效率区域差异较大,2014-2018年表现为下游>中游>上游,之后呈现上游>中游>下游的特征。(2)分析期内黄河流域农业水利投资效率整体上升,空间分布上离散程度增加,各省之间的绝对差异随着时间的推移逐步扩大。(3)2018年之前,黄河流域农业水利投资效率偏低源于其较低的纯技术效率,2018年之后则源于其较低的规模效率。(4)经济发展水平和财政分权度与农业水利投资效率呈正相关,农村居民收入水平和农村居民文盲率呈负相关。为提高黄河流域农业水利投资效率,应当优化农业水利投资配置,完善农业水利投资项目管理制度,营造有利于黄河流域农业水利投资效率提升的外部环境。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the efficiency and influencing factors of agricultural water conservancy investment in the Yellow River Basin is conducive to alleviating the misallocation of agricultural water resources in the basin and promoting the high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin. The MinDS model is used to measure the investment efficiency of agricultural water conservancy in the Yellow River Basin from 2014 to 2020, and combined with the kernel density estimation to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of its investment efficiency, and finally a panel Tobit model is established to analyze its influencing factors. The results show that:(1) The change trend of agricultural water investment efficiency in the whole country and the Yellow River Basin is basically the same, and the gap between the two is gradually narrowing. The regional differences in agricultural water conservancy investment efficiency in the Yellow River Basin are large. From 2014 to 2018, the pattern was downstream > midstream > upstream, and then it showed the characteristics of upstream > midstream > downstream.(2) The overall increase in the efficiency of agricultural water conservancy investment in the Yellow River Basin during the analysis period, the degree of dispersion in spatial distribution has increased, and the absolute difference between provinces has gradually expanded over time.(3) Before 2018, the low efficiency of agricultural water conservancy investment in the Yellow River Basin was due to its lower pure technical efficiency, and after 2018, it was due to its lower scale efficiency.(4) The level of economic development and the degree of fiscal decentralization are positively correlated with the investment efficiency of agricultural water conservancy, while the income level of rural residents and the illiteracy rate of rural residents are negatively correlated with it. In order to improve the efficiency of agricultural water conservancy investment in the Yellow River Basin, the allocation of agricultural water conservancy investment resources should be optimized, the management system of agricultural water conservancy investment projects should be improved, and an external environment conducive to the improvement of agricultural water conservancy investment efficiency in the Yellow River Basin should be created.

     

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