Abstract:
The analysis of the effect of human activities on the drought propagation is of great significance for drought early warning, and reducing the social and economic loss. Based on the measured monthly precipitation and runoff series from 1960 to 2017 at four meteorological and hydrological stations in Panjiakou Reservoir basin, Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index(SRI) are used to characterize meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the study area. Through the method of non-stationarity test, combined with the actual situation of the basin, the abrupt change points of the runoff series are obtained. Based on the Pearson test method and Copula model, the propagation time and probabilities of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the base period and human activity period are calculated to analyze the impact of human activities on drought propagation. The results show that the runoff series of the Panjiakou Reservoir basin show a significant decreasing trend, and the abrupt change point of the runoff sequence is around 1979. Human activities have a significant impact on hydrological drought and drought transmission in the basin. Human activities significantly increase the frequency of hydrological drought and reduce the correlation between meteorological drought and hydrological drought. Drought propagation time show seasonal differences, with shorter drought propagation time in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. Under the influence of human activities, the drought propagation time in summer is generally shortened by 1-4 months; the drought propagation time in spring, autumn and winter showed different variations, but the drought propagation time was prolonged in most sites. Under the same meteorological drought condition, the probability of triggering hydrological drought decreases with the increase of drought level. The probability of hydrological drought occurring increases with the intensification of meteorological drought, and the change of drought propagation probability presents two situations: human activities may promote or inhibit the occurrence of hydrological drought, and increase or decrease the propagation probability of drought.