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雅砻江流域1961-2018年极端气候时空演变研究

Research on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Extreme Climate in the Yalong River Basin from 1961 to 2018

  • 摘要: 近年来我国极端气候事件频发,研究极端气候的变化规律,能够预防自然灾害对人类生活造成的伤害以及水资源分布的失衡。雅砻江拥有我国重要的水电能源,基于雅砻江流域1961-2018年日降雨、日气温数据计算得到26个极端气候指数,利用线性拟合、Sen’s斜率估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验以及Pettitt检验法分析极端气候指数的趋势和突变;使用反距离权重空间插值法(IDW)进行空间插值,分析极端气候指数的空间分布特征。结果表明:雅砻江流域极端高温、低温以及平均温差指数在空间上都是南高北低;流域北部气温偏寒,结冰和霜冻日数偏长,而南部气温偏暖,夏天日数和生长期长度偏长。极端降水指数除持续干期,其他指数在空间上也是南高北低,且在东南部达到最大值。在全球气候变暖的趋势下最高和最低气温极值温度上升,高温增长速率小于低温增长速率,从而温差逐渐缩小;结冰和霜冻日数减少,夏天日数、生长期长度和暖日持续日数增加,使得流域冬季变短夏季变长,适合动植物生长的温度持续时间增长。极端降水指数除了持续干期,其余指数均呈现上升趋势,年降水量增加幅度最大,强降水量增加幅度次之。说明1961-2018年雅砻江流域极端气温趋于变暖,年内偏暖日数增多,极端降水整体增加,降水量和降水强度增大,降水持续时间加长,还需对雅砻江流域极端降水的增多加以防范。研究雅砻江流域极端气候的时空变化规律,为该流域水资源开发和管理以及灾害预警提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, extreme climate events have occurred frequently in China. Studying the laws of extreme climate change can prevent the harm caused by natural disasters to human life and the imbalance of water resources distribution. The Yalong River has important hydropower energy in China. Based on the daily rainfall and temperature data of Yalong River Basin from 1961 to 2018, 26 extreme climate indexes are calculated, and the trend and mutation of extreme climate indexes are analyzed by linear fitting, Sen’s slope estimation, Mann Kendall Catastrophe Test and Pettitt Test. The inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation method(IDW) is used for spatial interpolation to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme climate indexes. The results show that the extreme high temperature, low temperature and average temperature difference index in the Yalong River Basin are high in the south and low in the north; The temperature in the north of the basin is cold, and the number of freezing and frost days is long, while the temperature in the south is warm, and the number of summer days and the length of growth period are long. In addition to the continuous dry period, the extreme precipitation index is also high in the south and low in the north in space, and reaches the maximum in the southeast. Under the trend of global warming, the maximum and minimum temperature extremes rise, and the high-temperature growth rate is less than the low-temperature growth rate, so that the temperature difference gradually decreases. The number of freezing and frost days decreases, the number of summer days, the length of growth period and the duration of warm days increase, making winter shorter and summer longer in the basin, and the temperature duration suitable for animal and plant growth increases. Except for the continuous dry period, the extreme precipitation index shows an upward trend. The annual precipitation increases the most, followed by heavy precipitation. It indicates that from 1961 to 2018, the extreme temperature in the Yalong River Basin tended to be warmer, the number of warm days in the year increased, the extreme precipitation increased as a whole, the precipitation and precipitation intensity increased, and the precipitation duration lengthened. It is also necessary to prevent the increase in extreme precipitation in the Yalong River Basin. The study of the space-time change law of extreme climate in Yalong River Basin provides a scientific basis for the development and management of water resources and disaster warning in the basin.

     

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