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基于LMDI和脱钩指数的疏勒河流域水资源利用分析

An Analysis of the Water Resources Utilization in Shule River Basin Based on LMDI and Decoupling Index

  • 摘要: 水资源是绿洲社会经济发展的命脉,在水资源匮乏地区,水资源利用效率是区域水资源承载力提高的关键。基于2005-2018年疏勒河流域水资源利用数据,运用对数平均迪氏分解法(Logarithnic Mean Divsia Index,LMDI)将影响流域用水量的因素分解为经济效应、人口效应、定额效应和产业结构效应,分析不同因素对用水量变化的影响;引入脱钩弹性指标,进一步分析累计效应最大的经济效应与用水量间的相对关系。结果表明:(1)在疏勒河流域,经济效应和人口效应对水资源利用变化起到拉动效应;产业结构效应和定额效应为抑制效应。(2)流域水资源利用综合效应整体为负向效应,以2010年为时间节点可分为两个阶段,第一阶段流域水资源利用综合效应呈上升趋势;第二阶段水资源利用综合效应表现为波动下降趋势。(3)流域水资源利用量与经济增长脱钩状态经历了强脱钩-强负脱钩-衰退脱钩的过程,不同产业脱钩状态存在差异,其中第一产业脱钩状态最好。

     

    Abstract: Water resources are the lifeblood of social and economic development in oases. In areas where water resources are scarce,water resources utilization efficiency is the key to the improvement of the regional water resources carrying capacity. Based on the water resources utilization data of Shule River Basin from 2005 to 2018,the factors affecting the water consumption of the basin are decomposed into economic effect,population effect,quota effect and industrial structure effect by using the logarithmic mean Di decomposition method(LMDI),and the effects of different factors on the change of water consumption are analyzed. The decoupling elasticity index is introduced to further analyze the relative relationship between the economic effect with the largest cumulative effect and water consumption. The results show that(1)In Shule River Basin,economic effect and population effect play a pulling effect on the change of water resources utilization. Industrial structure effect and quota effect are inhibitory effects.(2) The comprehensive effect of basin water resources utilization is negative on the whole,which can be divided into two stages with 2010 as the boundary. In the first stage,the comprehensive effect of basin water resources utilization shows an upward trend. In the second stage,the comprehensive effect of water resources utilization shows a fluctuating downward trend.(3)The decoupling state of water resources utilization and economic growth has experienced a process of strong decoupling,strong negative decoupling and recession decoupling. There are differences in the decoupling state of various industries,among which the decoupling state of the primary industry is the best.

     

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