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闽江流域洪涝风险区划快速评估研究

Research on the Rapid Assessment of Flood Risk Zoning in the Minjiang Basin

  • 摘要: 基于闽江流域洪水致灾机理和洪水特征,收集整理闽江流域水文、地形、小时降水数据、统计年鉴、防洪工程等资料数据,从洪水风险的危险性、脆弱性、承灾防御能力入手,选择17项评价指标,采用AHP-熵权组合权重法,并结合GIS的空间分析功能,分析洪涝风险空间分异特性,实现对闽江流域洪水风险区划快速评估,有利于宏观防洪减灾政策和精细化的防洪应对举措制定。结果表明:闽江流域洪涝风险区划结果与近几十年闽江流域的洪涝灾害实情基本吻合,流域洪水风险分布与其气候、地形、社会经济、防洪工程等因素密切相关,流域内洪涝风险差异较高,高危风险集中在上游区域南平市的几个县市。

     

    Abstract: Based on the flood disaster mechanism and flood characteristics of the Minjiang Basin, the hydrological, topographic, hourly precipitation data, statistical yearbook, flood control projects and other data of the Minjiang Basin are collected and sorted out. Starting with the danger of flood risk, this paper selects vulnerability and disaster-bearing and defense ability, 17 evaluation indexes. The AHP analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method are used to obtain flood factor weight indicators of the Minjiang Basin, and the spatial differentiation characteristics of flood risk are analyzed in combination with the spatial analysis function of GIS, so as to quickly evaluate the flood risk zoning of the Minjiang Basin. It is conducive to the formulation of macro-flood control and disaster reduction policies and refined flood control response measures. The results show that the results of flood risk zoning in the Minjiang Basin are basically consistent with the flood disasters in recent decades. The distribution of the flood risk in the Minjiang Basin is closely related to its climate, topography, social economy, flood control projects and other factors. The difference of flood risk in the basin is high, and the high risk is concentrated on several counties and cities in Nanping, the upstream region.

     

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