Abstract:
Based on the daily precipitation data of 622 stations,the change and trend predictions of extreme precipitation events in China are explored by using the Mann-Kendall test,Sen’s slope,R/S analysis and other methods. The results show that:(1) Over the past 60 years,the extreme precipitation index in China has shown a no significant increase(p>0.05),and the maximum day precipitation(RX1day),the maximum five-day precipitation(RX5day),the heavy precipitation(R95p)and the total precipitation(PRCPTOT)have increased by0.52,0.10,0.64 and 6.00 mm/10 a,respectively. The extreme precipitation intensity index(SDII)increased significantly at a rate of 0.13(mm/d)/10 a(p<0.05),while the extreme precipitation day index shows no significant increase(p>0.05),with R20 and R50 increasing at rates of 0.13 and 0.06 d/10 a,respectively.(2) From the perspective of different regions,in addition to continuous wet days(CWD),other indices of extreme precipitation events show a significant increase in Southern,Central,Northwest and Southwest China(p<0.05),and a significant decrease in Northeast and Northern China(p<0.05). Thereinto,the increase rates of RX1day are 0.62,0.52,0.21 and 0.49 mm/10 a in Southern,Central,Northwest and Southwest China,respectively. The decrease rates of RX1day are-0.48 and-0.63 mm/10 a in Northeast and Northern China,respectively. Outside of Southern China,CWD decreases significantly at rates below 0.05 d/10 a(p<0.05).(3) In addition to R95p and PRCPTOT,other extreme precipitation indexes will continue their historical trend in the future(H>0.5). Both the extreme precipitation index and the extreme precipitation intensity index will show a sustained growth trend,and the significant increase will continue in Southern,Central,Northwest and Southwest China. Although the extreme precipitation daily index is generally an upward trend,the CWD will still show a strong downward outside southern China. The results can provide a reference for rainstorm disaster warnings and regional water resource utilization in China.