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一种基于生态流量的水资源开发利用率阈值估算方法

A Method to Determine the Threshold of Water Exploitation Index Based on Ecological Flow Estimation

  • 摘要: 水资源开发利用率阈值是进行水资源开发利用、安全评价、风险调控与综合管理的控制性指标。尽管国际上常以年取水量与年可获得水资源量的比值40%作为水资源开发利用率阈值,但该阈值的确定依据和合理性并未明晰,同时该阈值为固定值未能考虑水资源禀赋的时空变化,给通常面对水资源时空分布不均的管理实践带来挑战。根据水资源开发利用率阈值与河道内生态流量之间的互补关系,在利用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟流域天然径流的基础上,通过基于多层次生境条件的改进Tennant法(MTMMHC法)计算了汉江流域各子流域各月份在丰、平和枯年份的不同等级生态流量,并确定了相应的水资源开发利用率阈值,体现了水资源开发利用率阈值在不同河段和不同季节的变化情况。结果表明:MTMMHC法能同时考虑流量的年内和年际变化并反映流量在丰、平和枯年份的差异性。在汉江流域,各子流域各月份在丰、平、枯年份的水资源开发利用率阈值均不同,且各子流域各月满足最适宜生态流量所对应水资源开发利用率阈值大多在20%以下,低于现行的国际上40%的标准。因此,该阈值估算方法不仅明晰了水资源开发利用率阈值与河道内生态流量之间的互补关系,而且考虑了水资源禀赋的时空变化特点,体现了该阈值的动态变化特征,从而能更好地服务于水资源可持续开发利用与管理实践。

     

    Abstract: The threshold of water exploitation index is a controlling indicator for water stress assessment, risk control and comprehensive management. Although the threshold which is usually set as 40% of the ratio of annual water withdrawals to annual available water resources has been widely used in water resources arrangement, its justification has not been fully explained. Furthermore, the threshold is always a constant and fails to reflect the uneven spatial and temporal distributions of water resources, so it is a challenge to implement the threshold in the practice of water resources management. According to the complementary relationship between the threshold of water exploitation index and ecological flow, a modified Tennant Method based on multilevel habitat conditions(MTMMHC Method)is adopted to estimate the ecological flows in Hanjiang River Basin on the basis of simulated runoff from SWAT Model. And dynamic thresholds of water exploitation index are determined by the complementary relationship. The results show that the MTMMHC Method can simultaneously consider the intra-annual and inter-annual variabilities of flow and reflect the difference of flow in wet, normal and dry years, and the thresholds of water exploitation index based on the MTMMHC Method in each sub-basin are different in Hanjiang River Basin. In addition, most of the thresholds of water exploitation index corresponding to the optimal ecological flows are less than 20% and are obviously lower than the so-called international standard of 40%. The proposed method is based on the complementary relationship between the water exploitation and the ecological flow, and it has taken the unevenly spatial and temporal distributions of water resources as a dynamic metric for water resources management.

     

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