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洞庭湖流域特大洪水灾害研究综述

An Overview of the Catastrophic Flood Disasters in Dongting Lake Basin

  • 摘要: 受气候变化的影响,全球范围内极端天气时有发生,给人类社会和生态系统造成了灾难性后果。受此影响,长江上游与洞庭湖洪水遭遇的危险性正在增加,将在洞庭湖流域形成灾害性的特大洪水。研究基于过去的研究成果和现有的水文资料,梳理总结了洞庭湖流域洪水规律和防洪策略的研究进展,并重点对目前防洪减灾中存在的不足进行了分析说明。洞庭湖流域防洪工作中存在的问题主要包括:长江中游防洪规划与河道的实际安全泄量和蓄滞洪区规模存在差距;三峡水库运行以来,长期超汛限水位运行使得河道的行洪能力萎缩,清水冲涮造成河道崩岸问题突出;蓄滞洪区建设长期严重滞后,安全设施薄弱;水工程联合调度信息化、智能化水平不高,不能满足综合调度需求等。因此,洞庭湖流域防洪减灾形势依然严峻,防洪仍然是洞庭湖治理开发和保护的首要任务。针对所分析的问题,提出了以点、线、面为基础建立天地空三位一体的感知层,由感知层及时获取洪水预报所需的数据资源,通过云计算对数据进行智慧化处理,优化防洪资源,建立点、线、面工程措施与非工程措施相结合的全流域立体防洪策略,从而达到防灾减灾目的,进而为“四预”的实现奠定基础。研究成果对长江中下游及洞庭湖区防洪总体布局的科学制定具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。

     

    Abstract: Climate change leads to more extreme weather around the world, resulting in significant affects on human societies and natural ecosystems. The encounter probability of catastrophic floods in Upper Yangtze River and in Dongting Lake Basin is increasing, causing higher risks of disastrous floods. This study summarizes the literature of flood occurrence and flood control strategy in Dongting Lake Basin. Besides, the deficiencies existing in flood risk management are elaborated. The main problems in the flood control of Dongting Lake Basin are as follows: there is a gap between the flood control planning of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the actual safe discharge of the river channel and the scale of flood storage and detention area. Since the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the long-term operation of exceeding the flood limit water level has reduced the flood discharge capacity of the river channel, and the problem of bank collapse caused by washing with clean water is prominent. The construction of flood storage and detention area has lagged behind seriously for a long time, and the safety facilities are weak. The level of informatization and intelligence of joint dispatching of water projects is not high and cannot meet the needs of comprehensive dispatching. For these reasons, it is concluded that the flood control is still a main task of development and protection of Dongting Lake Basin. In the light of the above problems, it is proposed establishing a perception layer based on point, line and area, which can timely obtain the data resources required for flood prediction, intelligently process data through cloud computing, optimize flood control resources, and a multi-dimensional flood control strategy for the Dongting Lake Basin is proposed by engineering and non-engineering means so as to achieve the purpose of disaster prevention and reduction, then lay the foundation for the realization of “forecast, early warning, rehearsal and plan”. The research serves as an important guidance and reference for the formulation of the overall flood control strategy in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake Basin.

     

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