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射月沟水库溃坝洪水模拟及溃坝原因分析

Dam Break Flood Simulation of Sheyuegou Reservoir and Reasons for the Dam Break

  • 摘要: 针对暴雨洪水造成的溃坝过程复杂、溃坝水流与溃口变化快及灾害危害大等特点,以射月沟水库实际溃坝洪水为研究对象,利用实测和调查资料,基于时空变源水文模型和二维水动力学方法模拟分析了射月沟水库洪水形成、溃坝过程、溃坝水流与机理。研究结果表明:射月沟入库洪峰流量模拟值为1 915 m3/s,与调查结果相比,误差仅为3.5%;短历时极端强降雨引发远超水库防洪能力的特大洪水是造成漫顶溃坝的决定性因素;二宫村二队、三队受灾最为严重,淹没水深在2~6 m之间;下游河道出现两次洪峰过程及大坝下游河道束窄是造成下游村庄人员伤亡和经济财产损失的重要原因。采用的方法能较好地解决射月沟流域暴雨洪水、溃坝过程及洪水淹没过程的计算问题,可为溃坝机理分析和灾害损失评估提供案例支撑和技术参考。

     

    Abstract: In view of the complex dam break process caused by heavy rain and floods,rapid changes in dam break flow and breach,large disaster hazards,this paper takes the actual dam break flood of Sheyuegou Reservoir as the research object by using measured and survey data.This paper simulates and analyzes Sheyuegou Reservoir flood formation,dam break process,dam break flow and mechanism based on a spatio-temporal variable source hydrological model and two-dimensional hydrodynamic method. The results of the study show that the simulated value of peak discharge is 1 915 m3/s,and the error is only 3.5% compared with the survey results. The extreme heavy rainfall in a short duration caused the flood that far exceeded the flood control capacity of the reservoir,which caused the dam to burst. The second and third teams of Ergong Village were affected most seriously,and the submerged water depth was between 2~6 m. Two flood peaks in the downstream river course and the narrowing of the downstream river course of the dam are important reasons,which cause economic and property losses in the downstream villages. The method adopted in this paper can better solve the calculation problems of the storm flood,dam break process and flood inundation process in Sheyuegou Basin. It can provide support and technical reference for dam break mechanism analysis and disaster loss assessment.

     

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