高级检索+

风险感知视角下水库移民社会稳定风险仿真分析

A Simulation Analysis of the Social Stability Risk of Reservoir Resettlement from the Perspective of Risk Perception

  • 摘要: 为了深入探究水库移民社会稳定风险的演化过程及其演化特征,提高政府各项管理决策的科学性。首先从风险感知视角出发,建立水库移民社会稳定风险传导链与包含经济、政府管理、生活环境和社交的4个一级指标及15项二级指标的风险指标体系;然后基于已建立的风险传导链定性分析风险因素间的因果关系;最后构造水库移民社会稳定风险的系统动力学(SD)演化模型,运用ANP确定各指标基础权重,并结合算例进行风险演化仿真模拟。结果表明:随着资金的投入与政府安抚措施的实施,社会稳定风险值呈现出先快速上升后快速下降最终趋于平缓的总体趋势,其具体特征表现为:第1年至第3年期间的风险量快速累积,在短时间内上涨到峰值,第3年至第6年期间风险值由于各项政策的介入快速下降并于第6年开始风险值逐渐趋于平缓,并保持缓慢下降。

     

    Abstract: In order to deeply explore the evolutionary process and characteristics of social stability risk of reservoir resettlement, and improve the scientific nature of government management decisions, Firstly, the risk transmission chain of reservoir resettlement social stability and the risk indicator system including 4 primary indicators and 15 secondary indicators of economy, government management, living environment and social interaction are established from the perspective of risk perception. Then, based on the established risk transmission chain, the causal relationship between risk factors is qualitatively analyzed. Finally, the system dynamics(SD) evolution model of reservoir resettlement social stability risk is constructed, and the ANP is used to determine the basic weight of each index, and the risk evolution simulation is carried out with an example. The results show that with the investment of funds and the implementation of the government’s pacification measures, the risk value of social stability shows a general trend of rapid increase first, then a rapid decrease, and finally tends to be flat. Its specific characteristics are as follows: the risk amount in the first to third years accumulates rapidly, and rises to the peak in a short time.The risk value in the third to sixth years decreases rapidly due to the intervention of various policies, and the risk value gradually tends to be flat in the sixth year, and keep it descending slowly.

     

/

返回文章
返回