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基于CW-FSPA的黄河流域九省水资源承载力评价研究

Evaluation of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Nine Provinces in the Yellow River Basin Based on CW-FSPA

  • 摘要: 为了实现黄河流域生态环境和高质量发展战略,研究流域内水资源承载力状况成为必须要探究的问题。针对黄河流域各省区实际情况,构建由水资源子系统、社会经济子系统、生态环境子系统3个准则层,13个指标构成的指标体系,采用由熵权法和层次分析法组合赋予指标权重的模糊集对分析法和障碍度模型,对2008-2017年黄河流域各省的水资源承载力进行评价并识别、分析其障碍因子。结论分析表明:黄河流域各省水资源承载力在十年间总体上改善趋势明显,河南、四川、青海三省最为明显,而宁夏和内蒙古两省并没有明显提升。造成这种结果的主要原因是黄河流域各省水资源条件分布不均以及经济社会水平发展不平衡,而人均水资源量、年均降水量、生态用水率、耕地灌溉率和人均GDP五个指标是阻碍黄河流域水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因子。

     

    Abstract: In order to realize the ecological environment and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River Basin,it becomes necessary to investigate the water resources carrying capacity condition in the basin. In view of the actual situation of each province and region in the Yellow River Basin,an index system consisting of three criterion layers and 13 indicators is constructed from the water resources subsystem,socio-economic subsystem and ecological environment subsystem,and the fuzzy set-pair analysis method and barrier degree model,which is a combination of entropy weighting method and hierarchical analysis method,are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of each province in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017 and to identify and analyze their obstacle factors. The conclusion analysis shows that the water resources carrying capacity of each province in the Yellow River basin in general has improved significantly during the decade,with Henan,Sichuan and Qinghai provinces being the most obvious,while Ningxia and Inner Mongolia provinces did not improve significantly. The main reasons for this result are the uneven distribution of water resources conditions and the unbalanced development of economic and social levels in the Yellow River Basin provinces,while the five indicators of per capita water resources,average annual precipitation,ecological water use rate,irrigation rate of arable land and per capita GDP are the main obstacle factors that hinder the improvement of the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin.

     

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