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基于Z指数的晋中地区洪涝变化特征及暴雨洪水成因分析

An Analysis of the Flood Variation Characteristics and Rainstorm Flood Causes in Jinzhong Area Based on Z-index

  • 摘要: 以晋中地区1958-2020年各雨量站逐月降水资料,结合历史文献洪涝记载,采用线性回归、Z指数和小波分析等方法,分析了洪涝发生的规律、频率以及洪涝链。研究表明:晋中地区在近2382年间洪涝灾年、大洪涝灾年、特大洪涝灾年出现频率分别为13.6%、2.7%、0.9%,且洪涝灾年出现频率在加快,洪涝链现象十分显著。1958-2020年降水呈下降趋势,夏季降幅最大,整体呈U字形排布,1960年代降水最多;连涝频率春夏17.5%、夏秋25.4%、春夏秋4.8%,降水主周期年际26 a、春季24 a、夏季4 a、秋季8 a;暴雨主要发生在7、8月,暴雨频率最高为榆社,年均0.89次,喇叭口地形区暴雨频率明显提高,最后,从晋中地区下垫面特征、地形地貌、暴雨特征、大气环流、太平洋温度异常、地日关系等分析了暴雨洪水的成因,为区域防灾减灾和水资源利用提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation data of rainfall stations in Jinzhong Area from 1958 to 2020,based on the flood records in historical documents,the occurrence law,frequency and the chain of floods are analyzed by using the methods of linear regression,Z-index and wavelet analysis. In the past 2382 years,the occurrence frequencies of flood disaster years,major flood disaster years and especially major flood disaster years in Jinzhong Area are 13.6%,2.7% and 0.9%. The frequency of flood is accelerating,and the phenomenon of flood chain is very significant. From 1958 to 2020,the precipitation showed a downward trend,with the largest decline in summer,arranged in a U-shape on the whole,and precipitation was the most in 1960s. The frequency of continuous waterlogging is 17.5% in spring and summer,25.4% in summer and autumn,and 4.8% in spring,summer and autumn. The main precipitation cycles are interannual 26 a,spring 24 a,summer 4 a and autumn 8 a.The rainstorm mainly occurs in July and August. The highest rainstorm frequency is Yushe,with an average annual frequency of 0.89 times. The rainstorm frequency in the trumpet mouth topographic area is significantly increased. Finally,the causes of rainstorm and flood are analyzed from the characteristics of underlying surface,landform,rainstorm characteristics,atmospheric circulation,Pacific temperature anomaly and Earth Day relationship in Jinzhong Area so as to provide reference basis for regional disaster prevention and reduction and water resources utilization.

     

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