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基于影响因子筛选和GWO-KELM的大坝变形预测模型

Dam Deformation Prediction Model Based on Impact Factors Screening and GWO-KELM

  • 摘要: 为构建高精度大坝变形预测模型,引入基于最大信息系数特征筛选方法(MIC-CFS)对大坝变形影响因子进行筛选,减少冗余信息,降低模型复杂度。同时运用灰狼优化算法(GWO)对核极限学习机(KELM)的正则化系数和核参数进行寻优,提高模型预测精度,建立基于MIC-CFS-GWO-KELM的大坝变形预测模型。以某混凝土双曲拱坝实测资料对模型进行测试,结果表明,所建模型在均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差和拟合优度上均优于GWO-KELM、MIC-CFSKELM、PCA-GWO-KLEM、MIC-CFS-BP模型,预测精度较高,能够为大坝变形安全分析提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to construct a high-precision dam deformation prediction model, a feature screening method based on maximal information coefficient(MIC-CFS) was introduced to screen the dam deformation influencing factors, which reduced redundant information and the complexity of the model. At the same time, the gray wolf optimizer(GWO) was used to optimize the regularization coefficient and kernel parameters of the kernel extreme learning machine(KELM), to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, and a dam deformation prediction model based on MIC-CFS-GWO-KELM was established. The measured data of a concrete double-curved arch dam were used to test the model, and the results show that the proposed model is better than GWO-KELM, MIC-CFS-KELM, PCA-GWO-KLEM and MIC-CFS-BP models in root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R-squared, and the prediction accuracy is high, which can provide a reference for the safety analysis of dam deformation.

     

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