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气候变化对青藏高原陆地水储量的影响

The Impact of Climate Change on Terrestrial Water Storage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 陆地水储量是降水、蒸散发、径流及下渗等水文过程的综合反映,控制不同尺度的水文循环过程。分析青藏高原陆地水储量在长时间尺度上的变化情况,明晰气候变化产生的影响,可为认识青藏高原的水安全风险并制定相应的水资源管理措施提供科学参考。研究综合使用GRACE数据与ISI-MIP2b多模型数据,利用多模型权重法、Mann-Kendall趋势分析等方法分析了青藏高原1861-2005年与2006-2099年陆地水储量的时空变化情况,通过试验情景设计探究了气候变化对陆地水储量及地下水储量的影响。结果表明:(1)GRACE数据显示青藏高原陆地水储量在2002-2017年间呈减少趋势,水储量变化空间异质性强,高原南部呈减少趋势,北部呈增加趋势。(2)ISI-MIP2b模拟结果显示1861-2005年间青藏高原陆地水储量在工业革命前情景(PIC)与历史情景(HIST)下呈增加趋势,气候变化降低了陆地水储量的增加速率(0.50 km3/a),同时使高原东部及中部大部分地区的陆地水储量由PIC情景下的增加趋势变为减少趋势。(3)2006-2099年间,PIC情景下青藏高原陆地水储量呈增加趋势,RCP2.6、RCP6.0及RCP8.5情景下均呈减少趋势,气候变化使陆地水储量的变化趋势由增加变为减少。三江源大部分地区陆地水储量在4种情景下均呈下降趋势,内陆河流域水储量在RCP2.6、RCP6.0及RCP8.5情景下呈增加趋势。地下水储量在PIC情景下呈减少趋势,其余辐射强迫情景下呈增加趋势,辐射强迫越高情景下的增加速率越快。

     

    Abstract: Terrestrial water storage is the comprehensive reflection of precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration and other hydrological processes, it controls hydrological cycle processes at different scales. Analyzing the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and clarifying the impact of climate change can cause a scientific understanding of current water security risks and improve water resource managements in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This study utilizes the GRACE data and ISI-MIP2b simulations, combing multi-model weighing method with Mann-Kendall trend analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of terrestrial water storage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1861-2005 and 2006-2099. Further, it investigates the impact of climate change on terrestrial water and groundwater storage through different scenarios. This study finds that:(1) The GRACE data showed that the terrestrial water storage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau presented a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2017, and the spatial heterogeneity of water storage changing is strong. The southern part of the plateau showed a decreasing trend and the northern part showed an increasing trend.(2) The ISI-MIP2b multi-model simulations showed that the terrestrial water storage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1861-2005 exhibiting increasing trends(P<0.01) under picontrol scenario(PIC) and historical scenario(HIST). Climate change reduced the increase rate of terrestrial water storage(0.50 km3/a). In addition, the terrestrial water storage in most parts of the eastern and central of the plateau changed from an increasing trend to a decreasing trend under the PIC scenario due to climate change.(3) From 2006 to 2099, the trend of terrestrial water storage changed from an increasing to decreasing trend due to climate change. Terrestrial water storage showed an increasing trend under PIC scenario, while it showed decreasing trends under RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Terrestrial water storage in most parts of the ThreeRivers Headwaters Region showed decreasing trends under the four scenarios, while it showed an increasing trend in the inner river basins under RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The groundwater storage showed a decreasing trend under PIC scenario while it showed an increasing trend under other scenarios, and the higher radiation forcing scenario showed a higher increase rate.

     

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