高级检索+

基于元胞自动机的实时降雨下流域洪水淹没过程分析

Inundation Process Analysis of Watershed Flood under Real-Time Rainfall Data Using Cellular Automata

  • 摘要: 目前实时降雨下流域洪水淹没过程分析复杂,难以满足实际工程应用要求。虽然目前推广性较强的无源淹没分析方法计算简便,但是其实际物理意义不强。为此,基于实时降雨预报和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,建立了基于元胞自动机的洪水淹没分析模型,借助GIS技术生成数字高程模型格网数据,并结合流域下垫面条件求解洪水淹没范围及淹没水深。最后,以江西省宜春市袁州流域为例,考虑植被截留量和土壤下渗量这两种降雨损耗,利用径流系数表示降雨产生径流的损耗过程,进而采用建立的元胞自动机洪水淹没分析模型计算得到4个不同时刻(10 min、30 min、1 h和2 h)的袁州流域洪水淹没数据。同时,利用无源淹没分析方法和基于MIKE SHE的坡面流模型计算结果验证了建立的元胞自动机洪水淹没分析模型的有效性。结果表明:相比于无源淹没分析方法和基于MIKE SHE的坡面流模型,本文建立的模型可以充分考虑流域下垫面条件以及降雨产汇流过程的影响,更加合理地模拟洪水淹没过程,并能够动态输出不同时刻洪水淹没数据。所建模型具有应用推广性强、实际物理意义明确、计算过程较为简便,并且可准确地显示实时降雨下洪水淹没过程等特点。研究成果可为强降雨作用下洪水灾害风险评估、防汛抢险决策方案的制定提供理论参考。

     

    Abstract: At present, the flood inundation process analysis in a watershed under real-time rainfall cannot meet the needs of practical engineering application because of its complicated implementation procedure. Although the non-source inundation analysis method is highly popularized and is easy to implement, its actual physical significance is not strong. To this end, this paper aims at establishing a cellular automata-based flood inundation analysis model with the aid of real-time rainfall forecast and GIS technologies, in which the GIS technology is used to generate the raster data for digital elevation model. Then, the flood inundation area and water depth can be obtained according to the underlying surface conditions of the watershed. Finally, the Yuanzhou watershed in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, is taken as a typical case for investigation, two kinds of rainfall losses, including vegetation interception and soil infiltration, are considered. The runoff coefficient is used to represent runoff loss process generated by rainfall. Then, the flood inundation data of Yuanzhou watershed at four different moments(10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour and 2 hours) are evaluated by using the established cellular automata-based flood inundation analysis model. The results of the non-source inundation analysis method and MIKE SHE based-overland flow model are employed to validate the effectiveness of the established cellular automata-based flood inundation analysis model. The results indicate that the established model in this paper can well consider the influences of the underlying surface condition of the watershed and the rainfall production and confluence processes, and thus can simulate the flood inundation more reasonably and output the flood inundation data in real time, as compared with the non-source inundation analysis method and MIKE SHE based-overland flow model. The established cellular automata flood inundation analysis model has strong popularization and application prospects, clear practical physical meaning and simplified calculation process, and can accurately output the flood inundation process under a real-time rainfall event. The research outcomes can provide theoretical references for the risk assessment of flood disaster and the formulation of flood control and rescue decision plan under a heavy rainfall event.

     

/

返回文章
返回