入库径流不确定条件下水库多目标优化调度方案决策
Multi-objective Operation Schemes Decision-making of Reservoir Under Uncertain Inflow Runoff
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摘要: 针对传统水库多目标优化调度方案决策时往往忽略入库径流不确定性影响的不足,一方面对评价指标选用区间数,并以考虑入库径流预报误差下的模拟入库径流为输入时优化计算得到的最大和最小值为其上下限;另一方面在采用博弈论集合模型对基于序关系分析法的主观权重和Critic法的客观权重进行组合赋权的基础上,对VIKOR模型进行了改进以提高评价指标权重的可信度和合理性。应用于三峡水库入库径流不确定下多目标优化调度方案决策的算例分析表明,决策结果与以实际径流过程为输入时的基本一致,说明了该方法的合理性和实用性,为入库径流不确定下水库多目标优化调度方案决策提供了一种新途径。Abstract: In the traditional reservoir multi-objective optimal operation scheme decision-making,the influence of uncertainty inflow runoff is often ignored. To solve the problem,the interval number was selected as the evaluation index,and the upper and lower limits of the interval number were the maximum and minimum values obtained by the optimal calculation when the simulated inflow runoff considering the prediction error of inflow runoff was taken as the input. Based on the subjective weight of analysis method and objective weight of critical method,the game theory combination model was used to combine the comprehensive weights. The VIKOR model was modified to improve the reliability and rationality of evaluation index weight. Then this method was applied to the multi-objective operation scheme decision-making of Three Gorges reservoir. The result shows that the decision-making result is basically consistent with the actual runoff process. That indicates the rationality and practicability of the method,and provides a new way for the multi-objective operation scheme decision-making of reservoir when the inflow runoff is uncertainty.
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