基于机器学习方法的洪泽湖入湖水质评价及预测研究
Evaluation and Prediction of Water Quality of Hongze Lake Based on Machine Learning Method
-
摘要: 洪泽湖是我国第四大淡水湖,又是"南水北调"东线工程中重要的过水通道,它自身的水环境质量对其周边和北方受水区的供水保证至关重要。建立基于小波分析的长短记忆神经网络水质预测模型(WA-LSTM),首先对淮河入洪泽湖的水质数据进行预处理,将其分解为高频和低频信号输入至LSTM模型中进行单因子水质预测,再通过单因子水质预测结果驱动T-S模糊神经网络方法对洪泽湖水质变化情况进行综合预测和评价。研究结果表明:(1)小波分析方法可以较好地捕捉水质数据特征,其与LSTM水质预测模型结合能够较大幅度提升水质预测的精度;(2)WA-LSTM模型与模糊神经网络的综合运用能有效解决单因子预测无法体现水质整体状况的问题。研究方法与结论可以为洪泽湖水质监测管理及水资源调控提供技术支撑和实践参考。Abstract: Hongze Lake is the fourth largest freshwater lake in China,and also an important water passage in the east route of“South-toNorth Water Diversion Project”. Its water environment quality is very important for the water supply guarantee of its surrounding and north water-receiving areas. In this paper,a wavelet analysis based long short-term memory neural network water quality prediction model(WALSTM)is established. Firstly,the water quality data of Huaihe entering Hongze Lake is preprocessed,and then it is decomposed into highfrequency and low-frequency signals and input into LSTM model for single factor water quality prediction. Then,the water quality change of Hongze Lake is comprehensively predicted and evaluated by single factor water quality prediction result driven fuzzy neural network based on T-S. The results show that wavelet analysis can capture the characteristics of water quality data better,and the combination of wavelet analysis and LSTM water quality prediction model can greatly improve the accuracy of water quality prediction and that the comprehensive application of WA-LSTM model and fuzzy neural network can effectively solve the problem that single factor prediction can not reflect the overall situation of water quality. The research methods and conclusions of this paper can provide technical support and practical reference for water quality monitoring and management and water resources regulation in Hongze Lake.