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基于LightGBM的南阳市西部地区山洪灾害风险评价

Flash Flood Disaster Risk Assessment in the Western Area of Nanyang City Based on LightGBM

  • 摘要: 山洪灾害是对人类影响较大的自然灾害之一,给国民经济和人民生命财产造成了巨大的损失。开展山洪灾害风险评价是防御山洪灾害的有效方式之一,准确评价山洪灾害风险可为山洪防治工作和决策部署提供有力的技术支撑。研究以南阳市西部地区为研究区域,基于415个历史山洪灾害点,选取高程、坡度、年平均降水量和年最大3 h降水量均值等12项风险指标,构建了轻量级梯度提升LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)山洪灾害风险评价模型。同时结合随机森林RF(Random Forest)和极端梯度提升XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)两种方法,通过准确度、精度等5种主要评价指标对比分析各模型精度,最后采用性能最佳模型绘制研究区山洪灾害风险图,并在此基础上,生成多尺度山洪灾害风险评价图,借此对南阳市西部地区山洪灾害分布特征进行探究,分析山洪灾害成因。结果表明:(1)LightGBM模型性能最好,精度为91.57%。RF模型性能较差,精度为84.62%;(2)坡度、高程和年平均降水量是影响研究区山洪发生的主要风险指标;(3)研究区山洪灾害风险评价结果与实际山洪发育情况基本一致,极高风险区与高风险区的面积占总面积的21%,且主要分布于山脉附近、河流周边最低处以及农田生产潜力大的区域。LightGBM是山洪灾害风险评价的有效方法,可以给南阳市的山洪灾害防御管理规划工作提供指导作用。

     

    Abstract: Flash flood disaster is one of the natural disasters that have a significant impact on human beings, causing enormous damage to the national economy and people’s lives and properties. Conducting a risk assessment of flash floods is an effective way to defend against them, and an accurate assessment of flash flood risk can provide strong technical support for flash flood prevention and decision-making. A study is conducted on the western region of Nanyang City based on 415 historical flash flood disaster points, and 12 risk indicators such as elevation, slope, mean annual rainfall, and mean annual maximum 3-hour rainfall are selected to construct a LightGBM flash flood risk assessment model. Additionally, random forest(RF) and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost) methods are combined, and the accuracy and precision of the models are compared by using five main evaluation indicators. The model with the best performance is used to create a flash flood risk map for the study area, and a multi-scale flash flood risk assessment map is generated based on this. The distribution characteristics of flash flood disasters in the western region of Nanyang City are explored, and the causes of flash flood are analyzed. The results show that:(1) The LightGBM model performs the best with an accuracy of 0.915 7. The RF model performs poorly with an accuracy of 0.846 2;(2) slope, elevation, and mean annual precipitation are the main risk indicators affecting flash floods in the study area;(3) The flash flood risk assessment results for the study area are consistent with the actual occurrence of flash floods. The high-risk and extremely high-risk areas account for 21%of the total area and are mainly distributed near mountains, the lowest areas around rivers, and regions with high agricultural productivity.LightGBM is an effective method for assessing flash flood risks and can provide guidance for flash flood prevention and management planning in Nanyang City.

     

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