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空间降尺度下云南滇中地区陆地水储量时空变化特征分析

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Terrestrial Water Storage in Central Yunnan under Spatial Downscaling

  • 摘要: 受限于粗糙的空间分辨率,GRACE重力卫星数据难以在中小尺度区域上得到应用。基于随机森林算法分别在格网(Random Forest-Grid, RF-G)和区域(Random Forest-Zone, RF-Z)两种尺度上构建降尺度模型,将云南省滇中地区2003年至2020年GRACE陆地水储量异常(Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly,TWSA)的空间分辨率从1°×1°提高至较为精细的0.1°×0.1°,并将降尺度结果与基于PCR-GLOBWB(PCRaster Global Water Balance)水文模型的降尺度方法从时空角度进行对比分析以验证降尺度结果的准确性。进一步地,利用经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)方法对降尺度后TWSA进行时空模式分解以及特征分析,从而更深入地分析降尺度后的数据特征及影响因素。结果表明:基于RF-Z模型对滇中TWSA的降尺度效果最佳——其降尺度前后的相关系数为0.99,纳什效率系数为0.97,均方根误差为6.68 mm,平均绝对误差为5.22 mm,且其降尺度结果有效地消除了网格化现象;EOF分解的前4个特征向量方差贡献率共91.73%,第一模态表现为“西南高东北低”,其时间系数存在显著的季节性规律,第二模态呈“西北高东南低”分布且对应时间系数呈明显的下降趋势,而第三和第四模态则分别呈现出“全区型”和“西北高东南低”的分布特征;此外,TWSA与驱动变量中的归一化植被指数存在较强的相关性。本文可为滇中地区的水资源管理和生态环境保护提供数据支撑和技术保障。

     

    Abstract: Limited by the coarse spatial resolution, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) satellite data is difficult to be applied in small or medium-sized areas. Therefore, based on the random forest algorithm, the monthly GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA) in central Yunnan from 2003 to 2020 had been improved from 1°×1° to 0.1°×0.1° from two scales, namely grid scale(Random Forest-Grid, RF-G) and regional scale(Random Forest-Zone, RF-Z), respectively. The downscaling results are compared with the downscaling method based on PCRaster Global Water Balance(PCR-GLOBWB) hydrological model from the perspective of time and space to ensure accuracy. Furthermore, the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) method is used to decompose the orthogonal pattern and analyze the characteristics of the TWSA downscaling results, enabling a deeper understanding of data characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that the RF-Z model outperforms in downscaling TWSA for the central Yunnan region, with the correlation coefficient of 0.99, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.97, the root mean square error is 6.68mm, and the mean absolute error of 5.22mm. Notably, the downscaled results from RF-Z successfully mitigate gridding artifacts. The variance contribution rate of the first four eigenvectors of EOF decomposition is 91.73%. The first mode is “high in the southwest and low in the northeast”, and its time coefficient has a significant seasonal rule. The second mode presents the distribution of “high in the northwest and low in the southeast” and the corresponding time coefficient shows an obvious decreasing trend. The third and fourth modes respectively present the distribution characteristics of “whole region type” and “high in northwest and low in southeast”. In addition, there is a strong correlation between TWSA and NDVI in the driving variables. This study can provide data support and technical guarantee for water resources management and ecological environment protection in central Yunnan.

     

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