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基于植被供水指数的贵州省农业干旱特征分析

Spatial-temporal Characteristics Analysis of Agricultural Drought Based on Vegetation Supply Water Index in Guizhou

  • 摘要: 基于2000-2020年生长季(4-10月)的MODIS-NDVI、LST影像,以植被供水指数(Vegetation Supply Water Index,VSWI)为干旱监测指标,利用小波分析、线性倾向率、重心迁移模型等方法分析贵州省干旱强度和干旱频率特征,并探讨农业干旱与土壤水分和降雨量的关系,为贵州省农业干旱监测、抗旱提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)贵州省2000-2020年生长季(4-10月)VSWI整体上呈缓慢增加趋势,表明干旱有所缓解;干旱频率呈“西高东低”空间分布,干旱等级呈现黔西南州—安顺市—贵阳市—遵义市的干旱带,干旱程度由此轴线向西北和东南方向递减。轻旱面积多且呈减少趋势,中旱面积呈减少-增加-减少趋势,重旱面积少且波动较小。(2)农业干旱有两个主要振荡周期,第一个周期为7~9 a,振荡中心在2005年;第二个周期为15~18 a,基本贯穿整个研究期,振荡中心在2011年。贵州省农业干旱存在8和16 a左右的周期。(3)贵州省21年平均干旱重心位于黔西南州兴义市(104.99°E,25.03°N),月干旱重心和逐年干旱重心集中在贵阳市(106.73°E,26.58°N)、毕节市(105.28°E,27.30°N)和兴义市(104.90°E,25.08°N)。(4)VSWI与土壤水分的空间关系较复杂,但总体呈正相关关系,即土壤水分越低,VSWI越低,干旱越严重;同时降雨量与农业干旱的关系并不是完全为正相关,整体上两者的变化趋势具有相似性。

     

    Abstract: Based on MODIS-NDVI and LST images of the growing seasons(April-October) from 2000 to 2020, the Vegetation Supply Water Index(VSWI) is used as the drought monitoring index to analyze the drought intensity and drought frequency characteristics of Guizhou Province by using a wavelet analysis, linear propensity rate, and center of gravity migration model to explore the relationship between agricultural drought and soil moisture and rainfall is explored to provide a reference for agricultural drought monitoring and drought relief in Guizhou Province. The results show that(1) in the growing season(April-October) from 2000 to 2020, the VSWI in Guizhou Province showed a slow increasing trend, indicating that the drought was alleviated. The drought frequency showed a spatial distribution of “high in the west and low in the east”, and the drought level showed a drought zone from Qianxinan Prefecture to Anshun City to Guiyang City to Zunyi City, and the drought degree decreased from the axis to the northwest and southeast. The area of light drought showed a decreasing trend, the area of middle drought showed a decreasing trend, and the area of severe drought was less and fluctuated less.(2) There are two main oscillation cycles of agricultural drought, the first cycle is 7~9 years, with the center of oscillation in 2005; the second cycle is 15~18 years, basically throughout the study period, with the center of oscillation in 2011. There are cycles of about 8 and 16 years for agricultural droughts in Guizhou Province.(3) The average drought center of Guizhou Province in 21 years was located in Xingyi City(104.99°E, 25.03°N), and the monthly drought center and annual drought center were concentrated in Guiyang(106.73°E, 26.58°N), Bijie(105.28°E, 27.30°N) and Xingyi(104.90°E, 104.90°E). 25.08°N).(4) The spatial relationship between VSWI and soil moisture was complex, but the overall positive correlation was observed. The lower the soil moisture was, the lower the VSWI was and the more severe the drought was. At the same time, the relationship between rainfall and agricultural drought is not completely positive. On the whole, the changing trends of rainfall and agricultural drought are similar.

     

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