Abstract:
Based on MODIS-NDVI and LST images of the growing seasons(April-October) from 2000 to 2020, the Vegetation Supply Water Index(VSWI) is used as the drought monitoring index to analyze the drought intensity and drought frequency characteristics of Guizhou Province by using a wavelet analysis, linear propensity rate, and center of gravity migration model to explore the relationship between agricultural drought and soil moisture and rainfall is explored to provide a reference for agricultural drought monitoring and drought relief in Guizhou Province. The results show that(1) in the growing season(April-October) from 2000 to 2020, the VSWI in Guizhou Province showed a slow increasing trend, indicating that the drought was alleviated. The drought frequency showed a spatial distribution of “high in the west and low in the east”, and the drought level showed a drought zone from Qianxinan Prefecture to Anshun City to Guiyang City to Zunyi City, and the drought degree decreased from the axis to the northwest and southeast. The area of light drought showed a decreasing trend, the area of middle drought showed a decreasing trend, and the area of severe drought was less and fluctuated less.(2) There are two main oscillation cycles of agricultural drought, the first cycle is 7~9 years, with the center of oscillation in 2005; the second cycle is 15~18 years, basically throughout the study period, with the center of oscillation in 2011. There are cycles of about 8 and 16 years for agricultural droughts in Guizhou Province.(3) The average drought center of Guizhou Province in 21 years was located in Xingyi City(104.99°E, 25.03°N), and the monthly drought center and annual drought center were concentrated in Guiyang(106.73°E, 26.58°N), Bijie(105.28°E, 27.30°N) and Xingyi(104.90°E, 104.90°E). 25.08°N).(4) The spatial relationship between VSWI and soil moisture was complex, but the overall positive correlation was observed. The lower the soil moisture was, the lower the VSWI was and the more severe the drought was. At the same time, the relationship between rainfall and agricultural drought is not completely positive. On the whole, the changing trends of rainfall and agricultural drought are similar.