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基于物理机制和深度学习的混合模型及应用研究

A Hybrid Deep Learning Model Coupled with Physical Mechanism and its Application

  • 摘要: 充分利用现代技术手段提高径流预报精度,对流域水旱灾害防御和水库群联合调度具有重要的指导作用。现有深度学习模型存在缺乏模型透明度、物理可解释性差等问题。针对上述难题,将概念水文模型EXP-Hydro嵌入物理递归神经网络P-RNN层,建立了耦合物理机制的深度学习混合模型Hybrid-DL,该混合模型采用微分框架实现概念模型与神经网络的深度双向融合,能够同时训练概念模型与神经网络的参数,并以清江上游为例开展了应用研究。结果表明,相较于RNN、EXP-Hydro、BP和SVM模型,Hybrid-DL模型的纳什效率系数NSE分别提升了6.08%、21.01%、37.09%、73.92%,均方根误差RMSE分别降低了10.82%、33.73%、54.70%、95.57%,KGE效率系数分别提升了4.78%、12.68%、26.79%、55.74%,峰值误差TPE分别降低了4.96%、13.12%、252.84%、297.81%。Hybrid-DL模型具有良好的稳健性和适应性,可为清江上游乃至其他流域的径流预报提供可靠的理论工具。

     

    Abstract: Making full use of modern technological means to improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting plays an important guiding role in basin flood and drought disaster defense and joint scheduling of reservoir groups. However, existing deep learning models have problems such as lack of model transparency and poor physical interpretability. To address the above problems, in this study, a conceptual hydrological model EXP-Hydro is embedded into the P-RNN layer of recurrent neural network, and a deep learning hybrid model Hybrid-DL coupled with physical mechanism is modeled. The hybrid model adopts a differential framework to realize the deep bidirectional fusion of conceptual model and neural network, which is able to train the parameters of conceptual model and neural network at the same time. And an application study is carried out in the upper reaches of Qingjiang River as an example. The results show that compared with RNN, EXP-Hydro, BP and SVM models, the Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE) of the Hybrid-DL model increases by 6.08%, 21.01%, 37.09% and 73.92%, the rootmean-square error(RMSE) decreases by 10.82%、33.73%、54.70% and 95.57%, the KGE efficiency coefficient increases by 4.78%、12.68%、26.79% and 55.74%, and the peak error TPE decreases by 4.96%、13.12%、252.84% and 297.81%. The Hybrid-DL model has good robustness and adaptability, and can provide a reliable theoretical tool for runoff forecasting in the upper reaches of Qingjiang River and even in other basins.

     

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