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汉江上游水资源复合系统演化规律与驱动机制探究

Research on Coevolution and Driving Mechanism of Hydrological Coupling System in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin

  • 摘要: 人类活动对水资源及生态环境的影响不断加强,水资源、经济社会及生态环境系统之间的相互作用日益突出,其演化规律和驱动机制需要从整体和动态的角度来探究。对汉江上游水资源-社会-环境耦合模型进行概念解析,采用系统动力学的方法将水资源、社会及环境之间的复杂联系转化为几个关键变量之间的互馈关系,构建了汉江上游水资源-社会-环境耦合SD模型,仿真模拟了2006-2050年汉江上游水资源-社会-环境耦合系统的演化规律,并通过因果树图分析其内部组元的链式反应机理。

     

    Abstract: As the impact of human activities on water resources and the ecological environment continues to intensify,the interactions among water resources,economic and social and ecological systems are becoming increasingly prominent,the understanding of which calls for a holistic and dynamic coevolutionary perspective. This paper is an attempt to conceptualize the water-society-environment coupling model,and construct the system dynamics model from the perspective of socio-hydrology. The coevolution of the water-society-environment coupling system in the upstream of Hanjiang River from 2006 to 2050 is simulated,and the driving mechanism of its internal components is analyzed by the figure of“Causes Tree”and“Uses Tree”.

     

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